《大行報告》招商證券上調美團-W(03690.HK)目標價至190元 評級「增持」
招商證券發表研究報告指出,美團-W(03690.HK)第二季收入按年增長33%,受到去年同期封控導致的低基數以及重新開放的推動,超預期1%,相對首季按年增長為27%。調整後淨利潤達77億元人民幣,按年增長272%,按季增長39%,超預期70%。
該行預期,美團第三季集團收入按年增速為21.5%,其中外賣業務預計按年增長18%,到店酒旅業務預計按年增長35%。集團利潤率擴張將放緩,調整後經營利潤率預計按年提升2.2個百分點(次季按年提升5.6個百分點)。該行預計新業務的虧損將與上半年持平,因為管理策略是保持規模增長,同時努力減少虧損,並在長期內實現盈利。在短期內,如果新業務的虧損沒有顯著減少,預計集團利潤率的按年擴張將在下半年略有收窄。
此外,該行同意美團管理層的觀點,認為外賣業務更具抗擊宏觀不確定性的能力,因為其低價格定位使其成為人們可以負擔得起的消費選擇,平均訂單價格為50元人民幣,並且該行預計在可預見的未來,美團在外賣業務的主導地位不會發生變化。對於到店酒旅業務,該行此前指出市場過早地將其視為零和博弈,而實際上在線滲透率仍有很大的增長空間,使新老玩家都有機會增長。同時,該行看到美團APP次季用戶數達到7億,具有強大的用戶心智份額並成為多種線下服務的首選入口,依然看好美團的用戶粘性提升。
該行維持對美團2023至2025年收入預測大體不變,將非國際財務報告準則(non-IFRS)淨利潤分別上調40%、40%及34%。另將基於分部加總估值的目標價從186港元上調至190港元,主要由於盈利預測及匯率變動,維持「增持」評級。
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