《業績前瞻》券商料建行(00939.HK)中期多賺1.8% 聚焦營運前景指引
國家金融監督管理總局上月底公布內地銀行上半年淨利潤按年增2.6%,建設銀行(00939.HK)將於下周三(23日)公布今年中期業績,由於宏觀經濟及樓市環境存挑戰,料次季淨息差收窄,本網綜合4間券商預期建行今年中期淨利潤介乎1,642.35億元至1,659.05億人民幣,較2022年同期1,616.42億人民幣,按年上升1.6%至2.6%;中位1,645.68億元人民幣,按年升1.8%。
綜合3間券商,預期建行今年中期經營收入介乎3,854.64億元至3,931億人民幣,較2022年同期3,903.61億元,按年下跌1.3%至升0.6%。人行近日發表次季貨幣政策報告指商銀盈利狀況會隨經濟周期波動,對此應理性看待,投資者將關注建行管理層最新營運前景、涉內房行業信貸風險、派息比率指引等。
【宏觀存挑戰 淨利潤微升】
野村本月中發表報告表示,料建行今年上半年純利1,649億人民幣按年升2%,料其今年第二季純利按年升4%,料第二季淨收續費收入按年上升4%。美銀證券估計建行年上半年純利1,659億人民幣按年升2.6%,淨利息收入按年跌3.3%至3,069.08億人民幣,上半年淨息差按年跌30個基點至1.79%,料淨手續費收入按年升2.3%,估計總體非利息收入按年升7.6%至785.6億人民幣。
摩根大通估計建行今年上半年純利1,642.35億人民幣按年升1.6%,料第二季純利754.92億人民幣按年升3%(按季跌15%),料淨利息收入按年升2%至1,602.44億人民幣,估計淨息差1.81%(按年收窄22個基點),料第二季非利息收入按年跌6%至314.18億人民幣,成本收入比率28%。該行估計建行第二季股本回報率10.4%
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本網綜合4間券商預期建行今年中期淨利潤介乎1,642.35億元至1,659.05億人民幣,較2022年同期1,616.42億人民幣,按年上升1.6%至2.6%;中位1,645.68億元人民幣,按年升1.8%。
券商│2023年中期淨利潤預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
美銀證券│1,659.05億元│+2.6%
野村│1,649億元│+2%
摩根大通│1,642.35億元│+1.6%
瑞銀│1,641.96億元│+1.6%
按建行2022年中期淨利潤1,616.42億人民幣計
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綜合3間券商,預期建行今年中期經營收入介乎3,854.64億元至3,931億人民幣,較2022年同期3,903.61億元,按年下跌1.3%至升0.6%。
券商│2023年中期經營收入預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
摩根大通│3,926.1億元│+0.6%
瑞銀│3,924.1億元│+0.5%
美銀證券│3,854.64億元│-1.3%
按建行2022年中期經營收入3,903.61億人民幣計
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