《大行報告》中金料騰訊(00700.HK)第三季遊戲收入按年增速有望恢復至8%
中金發表報告指出,騰訊(00700.HK)次季收入1,492億元人民幣,按年增11%,按季則降1%,分別低於該行及市場預期1.2%及1.8%;非國際財務報告準則指標下淨利潤按年增長33%至375億元人民幣,分別高於該行及市場預期6.9%及3.6%,主要由於廣告及金融科技及企業服務(FBS)業務毛利率高於預期。
該行認為,騰訊廣告業務收入及毛利均有亮眼增長。公司次季廣告收入按年增長34%至250億元人民幣,增速明顯好於大盤。該方面得益於公司對廣告平台機器學習系統的優化推動滯銷廣告庫存銷售;另一方面,視頻號生態向好,次季用戶總時長按年幾乎翻倍,視頻號廣告收入30億元人民幣以上。受視頻號等高毛利類別廣告收入推動,次季廣告業務毛利率按季提升7.2個百分點至48.9%。該行料公司廣告業務趨勢向好且增量明確,預計第三季廣告收入或按年增長26%。
此外,該行指騰訊海外遊戲保持高增長,國內遊戲短期承壓;小程序遊戲帶來社群網路服務(SNS)收入增量。公司次季遊戲收入按年增長5%至445億元人民幣,其中海外遊戲增19%,得益於《VALORANT》及《勝利女神:妮姬》的貢獻,以及疫後玩家活躍度下降的影響逐漸消退。國內遊戲按年基本持平,主要因公司在次季主動減少龍頭產品中的商業化內容,公司表示國內遊戲收入將於第三季恢復按年增長。此外,小程序遊戲發展迅速,也為公司帶來增量的高毛利且具經濟效應的遊戲分發(以淨額法確認為SNS收入)與廣告收入。考慮到如《無畏契約》及《命運方舟》等集中在7月上線,該行預計第三季遊戲收入按年增速有望恢復至8%。
該行指出,騰訊降本增效態度堅決,且高利潤業務如視頻號廣告、電商佣金、小程序遊戲分銷及廣告等均處於快速增長通道中,公司經營槓桿有望持續顯現,預計第三季非國際財務報告準則指標下淨利潤有望按年增長20%。該行基本維持對騰訊今明兩年收入及盈利預測不變,維持「跑贏行業」評級,目標價475元。
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