《大行報告》匯豐研究:人行下調LPR機會增 偏好工行(01398.HK)、交行(03328.HK)及中銀香港(02388.HK)
匯豐研究發表報告指,人民銀行昨日(15日)將中期借貸便利(MLF)利率下調15個點子,同時將七天期逆回購及常備借貸便利(SLF)利率各下調10點子,相信本月21日下調貸款市場報價利率(LPR)的可能性增加,而下調LPR將會直接影響大部分公司債及按揭貸款,不過相信活期存款利率下調空間有限。
報告指,若果下調存款利率,將會鼓勵資金流向本地或海外的非存款資產,假設在生息資產平均回報下跌10點子、及計息負債成本平均下跌5點子的情況下,估計令內地銀行今年淨息差收窄4至5點子,並減少全年盈利介乎2.5%至8.8%,在內地銀行中,較為看好工行(01398.HK)及交行(03328.HK),兩者H股評級均為「買入」,相信工行派息穩定,而交行就受惠於業務集中長江三角洲。
報告又指,美元及港元相對人民幣的利率差距,將會推動跨境投資,今年上半年本港銀行跨境保險銷售及內地顧客開戶數目,都錄得顯著增長,在本港銀行股當中,看好中銀香港(02388.HK),評級「買入」。
該行認為,券商亦會受惠資金成本下降,長遠而言,存款利率下調將鼓勵投資者轉向其他金融資產,包括證券、互惠基金及其他財富管理產品。
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