You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行報告》摩通:政策利率下調預示內銀淨息差及盈利有進一步下行風險
阿思達克 08-16 10:03
摩根大通發表報告指出,人行昨日(15日)下調7天期逆回購利率10點子,一年期中期借貸便利(MLF)利率下調15點子,該行預期將於下周一(21日)披露的貸款市場報價利率(LPR)亦將下調15點子。該行認為,政策利率下調預示內銀淨息差及盈利有進一步下行風險。 該行估計,雖然下調LPR對銀行帶來負面影響(料減少內銀今年純利7%),但料內銀將透過降低存款利率以減輕負面影響。按照與6月份相同的模式,存款利率下調可能會使銀行盈利提高約5%。因此,LPR和存款利率下調對內銀盈利的淨影響約為減少2%、淨息差約減少2點子。 此外,該行相信內地政府正就最近的違約事件和信貸增長疲弱作出反應,進一步寬鬆政策的預期可能會支持內銀股短期表現。然而,由於抵押貸款再融資、降息、地方政府融資平台債務潛在重組,以及民企貸款不良率可能上升,導致內銀盈利風險上升。如內銀股出現反彈,該行認為是獲利的機會,尤其是郵儲銀行(01658.HK),因其較同業對降息更為敏感。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account