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《大行報告》高盛:內地7月經濟數據廣泛低預期 料一年及五年期LPR利率下調15點子
阿思達克 08-15 14:33
高盛發表研究報告指出,內地在貿易、通脹和信貸數據疲弱下,7月份經濟數據廣泛低於預期,反映儘管政策持續放鬆,惟增長勢頭仍然疲軟。 內地7月份規模以上工業生產按年升3.7%,升幅較6月份的4.4%有所放緩。月內汽車產量增速在高基數下進一步回落,鋼鐵產量增速則在低基數下回升。至於內地7月份社會消費品零售按年升2.5%,增幅亦低過6月份的3.1%;當中受疫情影響的餐飲收入增長15.8%,相對於6月份增長16.1%;汽車銷售跌1.5%。 此外,該行指內地7月份全國及31個城市調查失業率基本保持穩定,而國家統計局暫停發布青年失業率,該行則估計7月份青年失業率或因季節性因素進一步上升。 該行認為,繼7月份政治局會議的鴿派基調之後,考慮到持續的增長阻力(尤其是房地產低迷和信心脆弱),今日(15日)早上人行將1年期中期借貸便利(MLF)利率下調15點子,並將7天期逆回購操作利率下調10點子,以降低融資成本,提振市場情緒。該行料一年期及五年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)將於下周一(21日)下調15點子,但這應該遠遠不足以提振經濟增長。該行繼續預期未來幾個月內地將推出更多寬鬆措施,包括貨幣、財政、住房及消費等方面的綜合措施,但料刺激規模應小於之前的寬鬆周期。
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