騰訊音樂(TME.N)-中信證券：社交業務優化調整，盈利水平或維持健康
近日，中信證券發佈研報指出：我們預測騰訊音樂(TME.N) 23Q2 營收 71.09 億元(同比+3.0%)，Non-IFRS 淨利潤 15.51億元(同比+45.6%)。公司在線音樂業務業績維持強勁增長，6 月主動調整音視頻直播業務，短期或致業績下行壓力加大，中長期有助於業務在合規框架下持續健康經營。公司持續推進降本增效策略，毛利率、費用率得到進一步優化。我們看好在線音樂付費率長期提升趨勢以及公司與騰訊生態的深度協同，維持"增持"評級。
我們預計公司 23Q2 在線音樂 MAU 5.87 億(同比-1.0%，環比-0.8%) ，預計付費率達 16.5% (同比+2.pcts，環比+0.6pct)，對應付費用户數 9690 萬 (同比+17.1%，環比淨增 250 萬) ，ARPPU 為 9.5元(同比+12.0%，環比+3.5%)。廣吿業務方面，我們預計 23Q2 廣吿收入增長可觀，主要系"看廣吿免費聽歌"模式拉動，招商廣吿同樣表現亮眼。其他業務方面，數字專輯、長音頻、周邊商品售賣等增長強勁。2023 年 4 月，根據酷狗音樂，林俊杰發佈數字專輯《重拾 快樂》，火速登頂酷狗音樂數字專輯暢銷年榜 TOP1。
社交娛樂業務主動調整優化，注重持續健康經營。
我們預計公司 23Q2 社交娛樂業務MAU 1.34億(同比-19.0%，環比-1.1%); 預計付費用户數 645 萬 (同比-22.0%，環比-9.1%)，對應付費率 4.8%;預計 ARPPU 164.8 元(同比-3.0%環比+0.2%)。公司於6月起主動調整音視頻直播業務以符合風控要求，短期或致業績下行壓力加大，中長期有助於業務在合規框架下持續健康經營。
線下活動火熱迴歸，AIGC 賦能音樂內容創作。
線下活動方面，23Q2 公司於海口、廣州等城市主辦 TME live 超現場城市音樂節，7 月，由同程旅行冠名的2023TMEA 騰訊音樂娛樂盛典在澳門舉辦，持續獲得高熱度。受益於線下文娛消費的強勢復甦，公司線下商業化演唱會火熱迴歸，有望帶動招商廣吿、門票,周邊商品售賣等收入增加。
AIGC 方面，2023 年 6 月，騰訊音樂人創作平台發佈 AI黑科技，為音樂人在創作、發行方面提供助力。創作上，公司發佈輔助作詞工具"覓詞"和音頻識別工具，支持歌曲智能填詞、音樂智能分離和智能曲譜，發行上，公司發佈專輯封面智能生成工具和區塊鏈版權存證工具，提高音樂發行和版權保護效率。公司 AI 社交產品取得新進展，根據 Tech 星球，Al 社交 APP"未伴"於7 月開啟測試，用户可以通過自定義形象、性別及初始模板選擇 AI 伴侶,體驗 A 伴侶寫真和專屬智能畫作等功能,實現人機社交全新玩法。
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