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《大行報告》美銀證券料內房股或保持波動 直到投資者看到更果斷扶持經濟政策
美銀證券發表報告表示,就中共中央政治局近日會議關於房地產行業的聲明略超出投資者的預期,並無提及「房子是用來住的、不是用來炒的」這句話,料中央政府正在爲地方城市提供更多空間,以支持短期內的升級/第二居所需求。雖然有關聲明缺乏細節,但在該行看來此並不罕見,因細節通常是聲明刊發之後提供的。 該行指,在過去一年多次政策令人失望之後,預計投資者處於觀望的心態。該行仍然認爲,維持對內地房地產市場復甦需要的不僅是房地產寬鬆政策,如收入前景的整體改善等,並更加關注民營開發商流動性問題。合同銷售惡化已將投資者的注意力重新轉移到大型開發商的流動性上。如果沒有更有針對性的融資支持,該行認爲開發商流動性總體風險將持續存在。 總體而言,美銀證券認爲行業可能保持波動,直到投資者看到更果斷的政策可以提振經濟。美銀證券維持對華潤置地(01109.HK)、中國海外(00688.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)等優質開發商的「買入」評級,這些開發商具有較強的基本面,能夠抵禦行業低迷的影響。 美銀證券表示,重申對碧桂園(02007.HK)「跑輸大市」評級,下調其目標價43%,由2.3元降至1.3元,料碧桂園2023年現金需求爲440億元人民幣,佔其截至2022年年底非限制性現金的50%,該行認爲其流動性狀況偏緊。
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