植耀輝:中遠海運國際(00517.HK)加息受惠股?
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股連跌三個交易日,雖然發改委透露促進民企發展之若幹舉措即將出臺,惟對市況支持不大,投資者亦繼續等待刺經濟措施之消息,始終如何恢復市場信心還須政策推動。所以一日未有相關消息,大市要反彈只怕有相當難度。當然早前之七月20,000點目標仍維持不變,只是還須政策配合。
股份則跟大家跟進一隻冷門股中遠海運國際(00517.HK)。此股筆者過往亦偶有提及,今次分享原因,爲公司早前發盈喜,預期股東應佔溢利按年增幅將不低於100%,股價急升之餘並一度創近超過七年新高。盈利急增主要是受利息收益及應佔合營企業溢利大幅增加所致。由於去年中期業績盈利爲1.66億港元,以此計算則盈利將達到至少3.32億元,幾乎等於去年全年盈利(3.47億元)。
集團本身業務涉及多個範疇,但主要還是生產及銷售船舶防腐塗料業務,論發展未必能吸引投資者目光;惟其最大賣點可能是手頭淨現金接近60億元,已高於現時市值41.5億元一截,每股淨現金亦超過4港元。中遠國際手持鉅額資金,緣於在2010年時,以每股5.6元的代價悉售持有之遠洋集團(03377.HK)9.5億股,套現近53.2億元所致。雖然手持如此鉅額資金,但該公司一直以來未有進行過大規模收購,亦未有分派特別息。不過過去三個年度派息比率約100%,若維持派息政策的話,可以預計單計中期息已相當「和味」(預估約0.22港元)。
但更有趣的是中遠國際屬「加息」受惠概念股。由於手持鉅額資金,在加息環境下其利息收入亦顯着增加,以去年業績爲例,集團上半年銀行利息收入約2,000萬元,下半年則達到7,150萬元,而9,635萬元之財務淨收入亦已佔集團去年稅前溢利約23%。隨着年內美國持續加息,相關收入貢獻今年肯定有增無減。雖然加息週期將完結,惟預期在一段時間仍維持高息環境下,中遠國際息率仍會相當吸引,筆者仍會視之爲收息股組合之其中一個核心成員,並繼續作中長線持有。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,持有中遠海運國際股份)
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美股個別發展 港股續橫行拉鋸
耀才研究部稱,美股隔晚(20日)在科技股調整拖累下個別發展,道指升0.47%,受惠強生股價急升帶動;標普500指數及納指則分別下跌0.7%及2.1%。多隻公佈業績之股份股價大幅波動,Tesla(TSLA.US)大跌近一成,臺積電(TSM.US)亦跌超過5%,Netflix(NFLX.US)跌幅則達到8.4%。陸續亦會有大型科技股公佈季績,包括下週之微軟(MSFT.US),相信美股短期將較爲波動。
港股則連續第三個交易日下跌,雖然發改委提出支持民企發展部署,以科技股爲首之一衆成份股開市早段亦造好,惟午後A股走勢轉弱,多隻股份亦由升轉跌,最終恆指下跌24點或0.13%,收報18,928點,科指則下跌1.3%,收報4,063點。全日成交金額1,048億元。內房股反彈,龍湖(00960.HK)、碧桂園(02007.HK)及碧服(06098.HK)均升超過3%,不過盈警之舜宇(02382.HK)則大跌近14%。較值得留意的是盈富基金(02800.HK)及恆指國企ETF(02828.HK)成交驚人,分別達到197.6億及96.9億元。鑑於投資者繼續等待政策消息,相信恆指將繼續維持窄幅拉鋸格局不變,於18,700至19,500點水準上落。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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