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《大行報告》大摩重申阿里(09988.HK)為首選股 重組進展令人鼓舞
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)受到核心業務復甦、國際業務、菜鳥服務和本地服務的帶動,該行料阿里2024財年第一財季(截至2023年6月底止季度)中國零售商業客戶管理(CMR)和經調整EBITA將按年分別增長5.5%和18%。而在核心業務穩定、重組後釋放出自由現金流及非核心業務潛在貨幣化的支持下,股東回報得到提升。 該行重申阿里巴巴(BABA.US)為首選股,評級為「增持」及目標價150美元。該行預計,未來三年內集團的可供分配現金總額可能達到2,350億美元。 大摩表示,由於阿里的CMR、國際商務、本地消費服務和菜鳥收入得到改善,預料首季收入為2,260億元人民幣(按年增長10%),較市場預期高1%。該行指阿里4月及5月和618表現理想,GMV和CMR在6月季度均恢復正數,其中CMR按年增5.5%。該行認為,消費復甦已步入正軌,618促銷期間GMV、DAU和用戶花費時間的高質量增長證明了淘寶天貓最新投資策略有效,可透過內容、流量和花費的時間來驅動用戶體驗。 該行估計阿里巴巴未來三年內可供分配的現金總額可達2,350億美元,其中包括當前580億美元的淨現金、900億美元的3年期自由現金流、未來潛在分拆雲業務的潛在收益560億美元,以及(假設)將非核心業務30%的股權貨幣化,涉總額達320億美元。而該行指續看到阿里巴巴的深層價值。
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