《大行報告》中金:內地新房銷售未現季節性上升 本月前三周推盤量較5月降兩成
中金發表報告表示,內地6月首三周新房銷售未現季節性上升趨勢,供需雙弱是主因。上周內地61個樣本城市新房銷售面積和15個樣本城市二手房銷售面積分別按周略增2%和略降5%,但由於去年同期基數偏高,前者按年跌幅明顯擴至-41%,後者按年轉跌至-3%(上上周+13%)。
該行指,內地6月首三周新房和二手房銷售面積均較5月基本持平,銷售呈現一定築底態勢;需要強調的是,6月通常為季節性的新房推盤和成交高峰期,但今年6月首三周重點城市推盤量較5月還降兩成,成交量也未較5月有所增長,該行認為供需雙弱是造成這一現像的主要原因。
往前看,考慮到需求方面政策或仍將延續「因城施策」框架下的適度發力節奏,該行認為銷售中短期內可能繼續維持在當前的較低水平,但供給乏力帶來的去庫趨勢,或將促進房價預期在中期維度上逐步企穩。
中金認為在當前政策基調下,景氣度回落為政策適度精準施力打開一定空間,企業個體財務承壓而拖累行業二次探底的可能性亦不高,因此建議投資者重視內地地產板塊配置價值,在香港上市的內房股中推薦中國海外(00688.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、建發國際(01908.HK)、越秀地產(00123.HK)、中國海外宏洋(00081.HK)及派高股息的恆隆地產(00101.HK)。(wl/k)
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