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中金料內地全年GDP增長近6% 房地產投資增速或轉正
阿思達克 06-08 16:22
中金公司(03908.HK)董事總經理、首席宏觀分析師張文朗預計,中國全年GDP增長或接近6%,通脹總體較溫和,現時疫情影響大幅消退,供需平穩復甦,消費場景修復,以及居民內生消費動能改善,預計社會消費品零售總額名義增長約10%。 他表示,現時內地經濟處於加速轉型時期,其中房地產佔整體經濟結構比重下降,而新經濟模式則相對上升,包括綠色經濟、數字經濟等範疇。 他預料,全年固定資產投資(FAI)名義增速超過6%,製造業投資增速平穩,基建投資按年增速維持中高水平,房地產開發投資全年增速可能轉正,較2022年明顯好轉。 他亦預計,全年CPI和PPI通脹均比較溫和,次季錄得按年低點增速,並由次季起按季逐步回升。 他表示,近期人民幣匯率走勢較波動,主要是美國通脹回落緩慢,令美元有空間走強,預料未來人民幣匯率穩中走強,加上受惠於經濟復甦,人民幣匯率仍有上升空間。
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