大摩料歐洲股市於夏季跌一成 降歐洲銀行及保險股評級至「中性」
大摩(MS.US)發表報告,預計未來數個月歐洲股市可能下跌一成,受累於經濟增長放緩以及市場流動性萎縮,估計MSCI歐洲指數將在夏季下跌,然後在年底再次反彈。
報告稱,隨著未來數個季度全球經濟增長可能會大幅放緩,歐洲股市亦將要面對美元走強、貨幣政策收緊以及流動性問題。整體而言歐洲經濟勢頭令人失望,流動性狀況進一步收緊,年初至今股票升勢可能在未來3個月內受到愈來愈大的挑戰。
不過大摩長遠仍看好歐洲股市,預計夏季股市大跌後將會出現反彈,因為歐洲股票的估值較美國便宜,預計MSCI歐洲指數年底將收於1,970點,較上周五收市上漲近6%。
另外,大摩將歐洲銀行及保險公司的評級從「增持」下調至「中性」,認為這些行業將難以在經濟低迷和加息周期結束時跑贏大市,同時將醫藥股上調至「增持」,並將食品零售股上調至「中性」。
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