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渣打上調3個月HIBOR預測 料波動性加大屬新常態
渣打發表報告,指近期本港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)上升是聯匯機制自我調整的一部分;港匯因此趨穩。銀行體系結餘似乎已跌至足夠低的水平,HIBOR波動性加大是新常態。考慮銀行間流動性收緊及美國利率走向,渣打上調6月底止3個月HIBOR預測,由原先的4%上調至5%;今年底3個月HIBOR預測亦由3.6%上調至4.6%。 金管局於本週一(29日)通過「貼現窗」操作,向銀行投放37.7億元流動性,金額創2021年1月份以來逾兩年單日新高。報告稱,這是銀行處理日常結算需要時流動性緩衝減少的信號。渣打維持在銀行體系結餘較少下,HIBOR波動性加大是新常態的看法;風險亦傾向上行,因聯儲局未來仍有可能加息,且港美息差仍然顯着。
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