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電網變革:綜能升級構築基礎,微網聚合引領發展
格隆匯 05-25 08:58

本文來自格隆匯專欄:中信證券研究;作者:華鵬偉 李想 華夏

終端能源電氣化和用户側分佈式能源增長推動了用電側的變革—形成源網荷儲協調的微網形態。從用電側的發展趨勢來看:我們認為,短期的需求源於電力擴容、分佈式光伏、工商業儲能等硬件層升級;中期針對新興應用場景的模式變革;長期逐步實現分散負荷和電源的聚合,構建區域聚合的虛擬電廠。圍繞用電側的升級方向,用電側的增量環節主要包括EPCO、EMS、分佈式光伏、工商業儲能、充換電等。我們建議關注增量環節的投資機會。

用電側逐步形成源網荷儲協調的微網形態。

隨着終端能源的電氣化進程,用電側面臨着用電量增長以及電力用户結構日趨多元化兩方面的變革,疊加分佈式能源發展使用電側有源化,傳統的調度模式難以適應快速變化的用電需求,亟需形成源荷網儲統一協調的管理模式。其核心在於分佈式配用電的建設,即逐步實現分佈式能源、配電、用電的聚合及統一協調,形成區域微網的形態。

發展趨勢:硬件擴容、升級,軟件層面實現各層級聚合。

短期來看,用電側首先需要滿足用電量快速增長和保障用電可靠性的需求,其最主要的發展趨勢包括電力擴容、用户側配置儲能和控制保護器件智能化;

中期維度,在電力擴容等硬件基礎逐步堅實的基礎上,用電側的變革將以逐步適應新的電力結構和市場機制為主,包括用電數據的可視化、分佈式光儲充、需求側響應,用電降本等;

更長期維度看,用電側有望逐步從硬件基礎轉向軟件層面的聚合,逐步將孤立的電力用户、分佈式能源、用户側儲能的聚合,實現園區能源管理數字化和生產數字化融合;隨着聚合層級的增加,逐步形成區域聚合的虛擬電廠模式,實現更優化的調度和需求側響應。

用電側主要增量環節:

結合用電側的發展趨勢來看,我們建議圍繞着數字化升級的方向尋找增量環節。即從硬件基礎層面滿足電力用户多元化、用電量增長需求的電力分佈式光伏以及電動汽車充換電;適應用電降本訴求和麪向電力市場改革的工商業儲能;解決園區層面數字化融合的EPCO模式,以及面向更長維度發展的用户側能源管理系統。

風險因素:

新型電力系統建設不及預期;產業鏈上各種原料、產品價格波動;數字化平台推廣不及預期;電力市場改革不及預期。

投資策略。

隨着新型電力系統的建設,用電側需要逐步滿足源網荷儲協調統一的需求,預計形成搭建硬件基礎、適應新型應用場景、多用户聚合構建虛擬電廠平台的發展方向。

注:本文節選自中信證券2023年5月23日《晨會》報吿,分析師:華鵬偉S1010521010007、 李想S1010515080002、 華夏S1010520070003

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