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科網股業績普遍靚眼,接下來可以多一點期待嗎?
uSMART盈立智投 05-22 09:49

來源:風研海外

上週恆指下跌,人民幣走弱。市場情緒部分受到地緣及經濟數據的擾動,上週公佈的國內4月工業增加值、社零、固定資產投資增速低於彭博預期,市場較爲關注G7會議帶來的潛在地緣局勢變化。儘管中國大型科技股普遍取得靚眼業績表現,但在宏觀不確定性因素下,市場風險偏好仍未改善。

關注低風險偏好下的邊際改善因素:

1)5月18日,中國外匯市場指導委員會會議指出下一階段將強化預期引導,必要時對順週期、單邊行爲進行糾偏,遏制投機炒作。

2)根據環球時報,中國商務部長王文濤計劃於下週前往美國底特律出席APEC貿易部長會議,同時將與美國商務部長、貿易代表分別會面,表明雙方貿易主管部門正在恢復接觸。

3)據彭博報道,G7公報最終草案顯示,G7希望與中國構建穩定和建設性的關係,尋求“去風險”而非“脫鉤”。

4)據彭博報道,美聯儲主席鮑威爾表示傾向於下個月暫停加息。

天風證券看好港股全年修復,企業盈利處於上行週期,流動性和風險偏好趨向改善。上週騰訊發佈1Q23業績,收入恢復雙位數增長,Non-IFRS淨利潤同比+27%驗證盈利修復動能。阿里發佈FY4Q23業績,收入同比增長2%,經調整EBITA同比增長60%;百度發佈1Q23業績,智能雲業務實現Non-GAAP盈利,集團淨利潤大幅增長48%。

目前港股估值吸引力高,龍頭平臺估值性價比凸顯。在AI人工智能佈局方面,許多港股優秀的互聯網公司具有技術、人才和多場景及落地能力。恆指12月前瞻PE較2013年來中位數折讓1.7個標準差,恆指相對MSCI全球指數前瞻PE均較2013年來中值折讓1.9個標準差,股權風險溢價處於13年來64%分位值。

根據彭博一致預期,騰訊23年預測PE不到20倍,阿里巴巴FY24彭博預測PE僅10倍,美團23年預測核心商業PE約21倍,快手23年預測PS僅1.8倍,泡泡瑪特23年彭博預測PE約23倍。

投資建議

$騰訊控股(00700.HK)$:外部因素/資金面短期波動並不影響公司優質基本面,估值處於歷史相對低位。截至5月19日,彭博一致預期騰訊23年預測PE約爲20倍,24年預測PE約17倍。我們認爲公司核心業務格局穩固,商業化提速,遊戲/廣告/金融兼具復甦beta與新產品alpha,全年收入增速與利潤率回升共振,潛在盈利彈性可觀,中長期增長可期。

$美團-W(03690.HK)$:估值歷史相對底部,外賣業務壁壘穩固,到店業務顯著受益於線下復甦,外部競爭格局逐步清晰,核心競爭力依然穩固:近期開展的補貼活動有助於拉齊價格差距、鞏固用戶心智、穩住市佔。截至5月19日,美團市值對應2023年核心商業經營利潤爲21x,股價處在歷史相對低位,建議積極關注。

$泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)$:國內線下門店修復,抖音新渠道放量,海外門店拓展加速。中期核心IP運營能力和IP變現方式拓寬(遊戲、樂園)。截至5月19日,彭博一致預期23年預測PE約23倍。

$快手-W(01024.HK)$:公司今年各項業務展現韌性,流量穩健增長,市場份額穩定,恢復速度或超此前預期。隨宏觀經濟形勢恢復,公司核心業務廣告收入恢復或好於預期;截至5月19日,彭博一致預期23年1.8X PS。

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