美國債務上限僵局將引發美股動盪
華爾街知名空頭、摩根士丹利策略師邁克爾•威爾遜(Michael Wilson)預計圍繞提高美國政府31.4萬億美元債務上限的辯論將引發股市的一些劇烈波動。威爾遜在一份報告中寫道,多數客戶"相信此事最終會得到解決,但短期內會有一些波動",並補充稱,許多人認爲此事"對市場來說是雙輸"。
該策略師表示,即使債務上限在所謂的X-day(即美國財政部現金耗盡的那一天)之前被提高,“鑑於標普500指數對近期流動性變化的敏感性”,它也可能擠壓流動性,導致標普500指數走低。
美國總統拜登和衆議院議長、共和黨人麥卡錫在預算談判問題上僵持了幾個月,他們計劃星期二再次會面討論這個問題。美國違約可能引發市場拋售、借貸成本飆升,對全球經濟的打擊可能堪比2008年的危機。
摩根士丹利策略師們的歷史分析顯示,在此前的債務上限僵局期間,能源股和公用事業股的表現相對最好,科技股、醫療保健股、基本消費品股和股息增長股在債務上限問題解決後表現良好。

到目前爲止,債務上限僵局對美國股市的影響微乎其微,因爲投資者還在關注經濟增長和企業盈利前景。儘管第一季財報季總體上好於預期,但威爾遜表示,由於經濟增長放緩,他對全年盈利預期仍持悲觀態度。
這位策略師表示:“市場在表面之下發出了響亮的聲音——它正準備迎接進一步令人失望的宏觀經濟和業績。”他表示,這使得投資者不願大舉投資地區銀行和質量較低的週期性股,儘管這些股近期已經表現不佳。
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