市場都在炒暫停加息了爲何美國失業率還在探底？
來源：東吳證券研究
本輪失業率會持續維持低位嗎？美聯儲剛在5月議息會議上暗示暫停加息，可是4月美國的失業率卻繼續創新低。但是別慌，由圖2來看歷史上這不足爲奇：過去加息暫停時失業率也並未見底，甚至1995年與2018年開始降息時失業率也還未到低點。那麼本輪新低的失業率有何特點？我們不妨從4月非農數據來一探究竟：
失業率受“再入者”影響難以回升。計入失業率計算公式中的“失業者”和“再入者”相互抵消，導致激增的失業人數難以體現在失業率上。但由圖3可以看出，當前重新進入者已接近歷史低位出現反彈，但若永久失業者不能夠繼續增多，失業率將難以回升。
超額退休未見恢復，黃金年齡勞動力支撐有限。疫後在健康問題及美國居民財富增加的影響因素下，大齡勞動力重返職場意願低，導致55歲及以上類別的勞動參與率至今並未改善。同時，25-54歲的黃金年齡參與率已經恢復至疫情前水平，後續支撐或已見頂（圖4）。
不僅失業率創下本輪新低，薪資也值得關注：
薪資增速動能反彈加速對緩解通脹效果仍待確認。4月平均時薪增速同比反彈，環比延續上月上漲趨勢。薪資動能未能實現“全面放緩”，特別是就業密集型的服務部門。“最大僱主”的薪資上漲壓力，爲進一步僱傭和提高工資創造了動力，對通脹造成威脅（圖5）。
職位空缺與非臨時裁員需進一步降溫。從圖6可以看出，職位空缺/非臨時裁員的比例可以很好的解釋工資通脹。當前此比例已經出現下滑，但需要繼續減半才能使得工資通脹進一步降溫。按住職位空缺/非臨時裁員比例的反撲是打消工資-通脹上升擔憂的第一步。
實際工資的上漲增加“軟着陸”可能性。從圖7-8中可以看出，一方面名義工資增速的放緩要明顯慢於通脹，導致實際工資增速上升，這也增加了美國經濟實現“軟着陸”的可能性。另一方面，當前的實際收入距NBER界定衰退下的的實際收入水平仍有距離，美國年內經濟陷入衰退的可能性低，降息條件難以被鞏固。
由此來看，無論是新低的失業率還是工資，超韌性就業遠沒有達到衰退-降息的條件。當前情況與1995年存在一定的相似度：失業率下探，新增非農就業3個月移動平均達30萬人。因此穩健的勞動力市場及薪資水平支撐消費及通脹，給予美聯儲更多空間讓利率維持“更長、更久”。也正如此前報告指出，年內降息的基礎無法被滿足，衰退與降息要延後至2024年。
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