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如何規避美國經濟衰退風險?

摩根大通策略師表示,投資者可能會青睞黃金和科技股,因爲預計這些押注將爲今年美國可能出現的經濟衰退提供緩衝。包括Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou和Mika Inkinen在內的策略師在一份報告中寫道,這種被定義爲"長期"的交易表現爲增持黃金、科技公司等成長股和其他貨幣(做空美元),並補充稱,由於收益率曲線深度倒掛,這種押注遠非擁擠。

他們寫道:“美國銀行業危機增加了對黃金的需求,作爲實際利率較低的代表,以及對衝‘災難性情景’的工具。”

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摩根大通指出,近幾個月來,長期限主題似乎已成爲一種共識。這種交易看起來“相對有吸引力”,因爲在美國經濟溫和衰退的情況下,這種交易的下行空間有限,但在經濟深度衰退的情況下,這種交易的上行空間很大。

報告指出,事實上,科技股在全球股市中的份額今年大幅上升,接近2021年的高點,這意味着整個世界已經變得更加偏重科技股。此外,通過觀察美國股票行業的空頭興趣,科技股的空頭興趣最低,這表明做多/做空股票投資者的淨敞口有所增加。

報告還指出,機構投資者紛紛涌入黃金,但散戶投資者似乎增加了對比特幣的敞口。在信貸方面,投資者正在做多投資級公司債券;這是因爲高評級公司債券的久期通常較長,約爲7-8年,約爲高收益公司債券的兩倍。

此外,報告還提到,在外匯方面,“鑑於美國債券與美元指數表現之間存在強烈的負相關關係”,投資者通過做空美元來實現長久期。

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