一文綜合大行於建行(00939.HK)公佈季績後最新目標價及觀點
建設銀行(00939.HK)公佈首季業績後,今早股價偏軟,最新報5.2元下跌近1%。摩根大通指,建行首季淨利潤持平遜預期,但撥備前經營溢利持年持平,表現優於去年第四季撥備前經營溢利按年跌8%,跑贏工行(01398.HK)及郵儲行(01658.HK),並與農行(01288.HK)看齊,但遜於中行(03988.HK)及交行(03328.HK)各按年升9%及3%。收入增長大致符合預期,淨息差收窄及交易收入反彈均已爲市場預期。意外之處爲淨利潤,主要在宏觀改善下欠缺撥備回撥,撥備支出較該行高12%。
建行上週五收市後公佈今年首季業績,營業收入按年升1%至2,009億元人民幣,淨利潤按年升0.3%至887.43億元人民幣,每股盈利0.35元人民幣。期內利息淨收入按年跌4%至1,531億元人民幣,淨利息收益率及淨息差爲1.83%及1.64%,按季均下降8個基點,主要受到LPR下調及市場利率整體走低影響。手續費及傭金淨收入按年升2.6%至430億元人民幣。
建行不良貸款按季增加168億元人民幣至3,096億元人民幣,不良貸款率按季持平至1.38%。3月底止核心一級資本充足率按季跌50基點至13.69%;資本充足率按季跌54基點至17.88%。
【淨利潤遜預期 績後股價偏軟】
大和下調對建行今年至2025年撥備前經營溢利預測2%,但輕微上調對建行目標價至6.5元及維持「買入」評級。該行指,建行管理層解釋淨息差按季收窄8點子是因爲按揭貸款佔比高,年初64%按揭貸款重新定價,使該行淨息差壓力大於同業。貸款優惠利率重新定價亦造成貸款利率按季跌11點子,但同期存款利率僅按年跌3點子。公司管理層料淨息差下行風險在今年餘下季度受限制。該行又指,建行料不良貸款形成持續,基於發展商上半年面對債務到期壓力,但不良貸款形成情況於首季緩和,不良貸款比率亦遠低於平均。
美銀證券指,建行今淨費用收入,由去年按年跌4.5%,至今年首季按年升2.6%,首季總非利息收入按年及按季分別升21%及1.3倍,受惠交易盈利恢復,相比去年第四季的債券及其他投資錄得虧損。季度收入按年升0.9%,經營成本按年升3.3%,成本收入比率按年反彈0.5個百分點至22.4%,但在同業中屬低水平。該行又指,建行不良貸款規模按季升5.7%,不良貸款比率則按季持平。該行給予建行「買入」評級及7.05元目標價。
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本網最新綜合7間券商對其投資評級及目標價:
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
花旗│買入│7.63元
華泰證券│買入│7.16元
摩根大通│增持│7.1元
美銀證券│買入│7.05元
野村│買入│6.85元->6.66元
大和│買入│6.4元->6.5元
中金│跑贏行業│5.85元
券商│觀點
花旗│撥備前經營溢利及稅後利潤遜同業
華泰證券│規模加速擴張,非利息收入驅動業績
摩根大通│季績好壞參半,管理層指引稱經營展望改善抵銷失望盈利
美銀證券│收入及核心利潤增長轉正面
野村│淨利潤略遜預期,受淨息差拖累
大和│淨息差壓力集中出現,費用收入增加
中金│營收增速略好於預期,利潤略低於預期
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