小摩：AI热潮今年迄今涨45%
摩根大通在一份新报告中认为，由ChatGPT和其他大语言模型引发的人工智能热潮，推动了今年标普500指数一半以上的涨幅。这项分析发现，对这一概念的兴趣创造了1.4万亿美元的市值和今年迄今45%的涨幅。
但由Dubravko Lakos-Bujas领导的摩根大通团队对这一动向并不看好，这些策略师表示，人工智能股的上涨，加上向防御股的轮动，导致了自20世纪90年代以来，在股市上涨期间最小的股票领先幅度。
Lakos-Buja表示：“向防御类股的轮动和成长股领先幅度的缩小，通常表明周期的放缓/衰退。对我来说，这就是摩根大通这份报告的关键。市场目前的拥挤程度意味着经济衰退的风险还远远没有反映在价格中。在这个问题上，市场上的意见非常分散，美联储会在年底前降息吗?这意味着市场会有一种反应。”
Lakos-Buja称：“这也意味着，如果美联储不得不降息，将会出现经济衰退，这对股市意味着什么?所以现在还没有明确的发展轨迹。但如果美联储真的降息，那就意味着他们看到了更糟糕的经济状况，这实际上促使他们这样做。”
据了解，该分析涵盖微软(MSFT.US)、谷歌母公司Alphabet (GOOGL.US)、亚马逊(AMZN.US)、Meta Platforms (META.US)、英伟达(NVDA.US)和赛富时(CRM.US)。
这些股票是其所谓的“LLM-创新”股，其表现优于其他五大股票，即苹果(AAPL.US)、特斯拉(TSLA.US)、伯克希尔哈撒韦(BRKA.US)、联合健康(UNH.US)和摩根大通(JPM.US)，也跑赢标普500指数中11至50的成分股，以及罗素2000指数。
此外，这类人工智能股贡献了标普500指数53%的涨幅，纳斯达克100指数54%的涨幅，以及68%的成长股涨幅。
综上所述，Lakos-Buja称：“如果你考虑一下我们将在这个财报季听到什么，以及其中有多少是可以预期的，至少要进一步倾向于这种说法。甚至还可以展示他们的盈利努力是如何取得成果的，以及他们的长期运行率是怎样的。我认为这是投资者想听到的更多信息。”
最后，上述分析师表示，标普500指数中11至50的成分股有更大的估值支持，估值明显比10只最大的大型股要低。他们认为，医疗健康、公用事业和主要消费品等防御股有进一步的轮动空间。
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