《大行報告》富瑞下調中銀香港(02388.HK)和恆生(00011.HK)目標價 淨息差和派息成季績焦點
富瑞發表研究報告指出,香港銀行本周將陸續披露季績,當中中銀香港(02388.HK)將於周五(4月28日)發布,匯控(00005.HK)及恆生(00011.HK)將於下周二(5月2日)發布。而市場關注銀行股首季淨息差下行情況,以及加息帶來的盈利能力改善如何反映在股息上。
該行料首季業績對本港銀行股的股價影響較小,由於香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)疲弱,市場已廣泛預期銀行股季內淨息差放緩。首季一個月期HIBOR按季跌65點子,儘管一個月期倫敦銀行同業拆息(LIBOR)按季增長71點子至4.61厘抵銷了部分影響,香港銀行基本利率按季跌24點子,意味著中銀香港淨息差壓力約呈中單位數,相當於首季淨息差約1.6%。至於恆生淨息差的收縮幅度或較去年第四季的約2.1%更大,但仍較去年第三季的約1.9%高。
資本回報方面,該行指中銀香港重申其40%至60%的派息率指引,中銀香港去年派息率增加至53%,相對於2017至2020年為47%至50%,反映管理層改善股東回報的意圖,要衡量其中期股息還為時過早。 鑑於普通股權一級資本比率(CET1)為17.6%,投資者希望中銀香港採取更為積極的資本行動。至於恆生將於下周二與匯控同日公布季息,管理層維持當盈利能力提高時將實現股東回報的承諾,惟並沒有給出有關股息的具體指引,投資者預期首季每股派息將增加至約80至90仙,相對於去年為70仙。
該行對銀行股淨息差前景預測較為保守,但認為整體股本回報率概況基本保持不變。對中銀香港目標價由33元下調至32元,評級「買入」;對恆生目標價由120元下調至115元,評級「持有」。
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