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一文綜合大行於金沙中國(01928.HK)公布季績後目標價及觀點
金沙中國(01928.HK)今早開市前公布今年首季業績,按美國公認會計原則,經調整物業EBITDA為正3.98億美元,盤中曾高見30.05元一度搶高4.5%,最新報29.8元升3.7%。里昂指,金沙中國首季業績良好,經調整EBITDA及贏率調整後EBITDA均較市場預期高15%,為2019年首季的46%水平。整體博彩毛收入按季升2.77倍,3月的復甦速度較今年首兩個月加快。該行指,金沙中國第二季將恢復86%房間供應,並於第三季恢復所有房間供應,將為EBITDA進一步擴張奠下基礎。該行給予金沙中國「買入」評級及33.9元目標價。 金沙中國公布按美國公認會計原則,首季淨收益總額按年升逾1.3倍至12.7億美元;期內淨虧損按年收窄97%至1,000萬美元。經調整物業EBITDA為正3.98億美元,上年同期為負1,100萬美元。期內經扣除資本化金額後利息開支按年升38%至2.18億美元;加權平均借款成本按年升1.2個百分點至5.4%,同時加權平均債務餘額較去年同季有所增加,該增幅乃由於去年SCL信貸融資項下的借款9.99億美元所致。第一季資本開支共為1.66億美元,包括於澳門3,800萬美元的建造、發展及維修活動。 【季績勝預期 迎強勁復甦】 高盛上調對金沙中國2023年至2025年EBITDA預測最多6%,並把金沙中國目標價上調至37元,維持「買入」評級。該行指,濠賭股有兩項令市場預測上調的來源,包括中場博彩毛收復甦,以及EBITDA率於永久性成本節約和收入組合轉向中場部門擴張。該行結構分析顯示,縱使博彩中介貴賓的博彩毛收流失,但行業EBITDA在中場博彩毛收較疫前高約5%的情況下可回復至疫前水平,金沙中國的首季業績確認上述觀點。 美銀證券引述金沙中國管理層指,3月旗下中場博彩毛收較今年首兩個月升10%,酒店入住率則升8個百分點,轉碼數亦於3月顯著加快。此外,高端中場博彩金額及人數亦復甦較快,管理層對基礎中場在遊客增加及旅遊服務樽頸緩解下的復甦潛力有信心,非廣東省旅客復甦亦因酒店房間緊張落後於廣東省旅客。該行亦引述管理層指,對亞洲地區外來貴賓需求感到意外,相信其銷售網絡及具質素產品可繼續吸引外來玩家。該行予金沙中國「買入」評級及33.3元目標價。 ----------------------------------------------- 本網最新列出6間券商對金沙中國的投資評級及目標價: 券商│投資評級│目標價(港元) 高盛│買入│36元->37元 里昂│買入│33.9元 瑞信│跑贏大市│33.8元 美銀證券│買入│33.3元 摩根士丹利│增持│32元 瑞銀│中性│31.8元 券商│觀點 高盛│確認EBITDA復甦主題,縱使中介貴賓流失 里昂│季績良好,經調整EBITDA勝市場預期15% 瑞信│管理層展望樂觀 美銀證券│仍有復甦空間 摩根士丹利│EBITDA顯著勝預期,受中場市佔增長推動 瑞銀│季績顯著勝預期
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