“中特估”在港股的映射及投資機會
來源：戴清策略研究
政策推動“中國特色估值體系”重構，有助於央國企提升ROE和PB。從歷史經驗來看，ROE能夠提升的板塊或更多吸引外資流入。港股投資者關注高分紅、低估值、資本開支少且ROE有望提升的板塊。本報告從當前港股央國企估值現狀、相關政策、行業估值等角度，結合外資流入的特徵，尋找港股央國企估值體系重構的交易機會。
政策推動“中國特色估值體系重構”。當前港股央國企估值處於歷史低位，較民企折價較大。一方面是由於國企揹負的“公共政策性使命”與“盈利性使命”衝突，另一原因則是市場對高成長性公司的偏好，導致港股的央國企估值相對較低。在此背景下，政策提出國企要提升核心競爭力和加強投資者關係管理，以提升國企估值。
改革整合、科技創新提升央國企ROE。1）國企改革進一步推進，經營機制不斷完善，盈利中樞有望擡升，市場的認可度或也將因此得到扭轉。2）央企戰略性重組和專業化整合繼續提速，提高國有資產資源配置效率，增強產業競爭力。3）我國經濟需要尋求新的經濟增長點，高端製造業、科技創興產業爲經濟帶來潛在新動能。未來央國企將擴大科技投入，肩負起科技創新的國家重任。
從歷史經驗來看，ROE能夠提升的板塊或更多吸引外資流入。1）北上資金集中流入高ROE增速行業。2020至2022年，北上累計淨流入排名前三的行業爲電力設備、醫藥生物及有色金屬。這些行業的ROE複合增速明顯優於其餘行業。淨流出居前的行業爲食品飲料、商貿零售和房地產，受疫情影響，這些行業近三年的ROE增速下滑嚴重。2）北上資金更偏愛高市值的“核心資產”。2020-2022年，各行業累計淨流入排名靠前的上市公司市值相對較高。其中外資累計加倉超過200億元的公司均爲行業龍頭股，指向北上資金青睞大市值“核心資產”。
在港股，關注高分紅、低估值、資本開支少且ROE有望提升的板塊。1）行業：在港股，南下資金更青睞高ROE、低估值行業。2）個股：內資喜愛行業中高市值龍頭股，集中流入排名靠前的個股平均市值較高，同時關注高成長性個股。3）外資：以巴菲特爲代表的外資機構注重高分紅、低估值、低資本開支個股。巴菲特持續增持的日本商社股和美國能源股具有高分紅、低估值和資本開支少的共性。港股上遊資源品和下遊的電信運營商具有類似的特徵，預計未來將獲得外資的重點關注。
港股高市值、低估值央國企個股篩選：基於前文分析，我們對港股央國企個股池進行以下四個條件的篩選：1）央國企收入佔比高的行業；2）高市值：總市值大於1000億、500-1000億和100-500億；3）低估值：目前估值（市淨率）分別低於1/0.7/0.5的公司；4）高流動性：過去一個月日均成交額大於1個億。
風險因素：1）國內經濟復甦不及預期；2）政策落地不及預期。
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