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大摩知名空頭:美股尚未走出熊市
uSMART盈立智投 04-17 20:28

華爾街最知名的空頭之一、摩根士丹利策略師Michael Wilson表示,標普500指數的上漲僅由少數幾隻股票推動,如果債券收益率上升,該指數將面臨新低的風險。

Wilson表示,在三個月的滾動基礎上,跑贏標普500指數的股票比例是有記錄以來最低的。這位策略師在一份報告中寫道,這“是市場在警告我們,我們還遠遠沒有走出熊市困境”。據瞭解,這位策略師在《機構投資者》調查中因正確預測股市暴跌而排名第一。

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Wilson表示,如果通脹具有粘性,並且債券收益率上升,最大的風險可能來自科技股的下滑。以科技股爲主的納斯達克100指數今年上漲了20%,部分原因是美國一些地區銀行的突然倒閉引發了投資者從銀行股轉向成長股。投資者還一直在押注通脹降溫將促使美聯儲很快停止加息,但Wilson警告稱,這種預期還爲時過早。

Wilson寫道:“如果說有什麼能給大型股的漲勢潑冷水的話,那就是由於美聯儲無法像一些投資者預期的那樣儘快停止加息而導致收益率上升。”

而隨着市場焦點轉向第一季度財報,這位策略師表示,儘管最近進行了盈利下調,但盈利預期仍然“過於樂觀”。他預計,由於營收增長不及預期,預計未來幾個季度的下調速度將“大幅增加”。

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