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惠譽:今年內銀業將續面臨營收及融資壓力
惠譽評級表示,即使信貸成本可能大致上穩定,但貸款需求疲軟疊加淨息差收窄壓力將令今年內地銀行業將繼續面臨營收壓力。惠譽預估,惠譽授評銀行的貸款餘額將實現約11%的增速,與2022年增速相似。截至2023年末,銀行業整體槓桿率預計將保持在約265%的水平,且中期將大致上維持當前水平。 惠譽表示,在購房者信心顯着恢復前,預計個人住房抵押貸款和房地產開發貸款需求將保持疲弱,且仍將制約整體貸款增長。另外,惠譽預期,近年來基礎設施、小微企業及綠色貸款持續增長有望在一定程度上支撐銀行業整體貸款增長。 惠譽認爲,在按揭貸款重定價及存款競爭持續的驅動下,銀行淨息差將進一步承壓;同時預期今年銀行業資產質量將大致平穩,信貸成本基本持平。 惠譽表示,惠譽授評銀行個人住房抵押貸款的不良貸款率維持在0.44%的較低水平。惠譽預計,源自個人住房抵押貸款的不良貸款壓力將有限,因爲政策支持將繼續爲「保交樓」提供支撐。
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