郭思治:4月大市形態暫未確認 保誠(02378.HK)受惠通關
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,4月大市暫時之形態仍未能確認,以6日之低位爲20,099點計,只要恆指能上破3日之高位20,475點,則本月大市之形態將會初呈先低而後高,其時恆指如能升越50天線(約在20,531點左右),則目標將直指3月7日之高位21,005,如能突破此關,大市將續往上尋月內新高。
保誠(02378.HK)截至2022年12月底止全年業績,持續經營業務賺毛保費233.44億美元,按年跌3.6%,虧轉盈賺9.98億美元,相對上年同期蝕20.42億美元計,業績確已明顯好轉,每股盈利爲0.365美元,派末期息0.1304美元,連同中期息0.0574美元計,即全年股息爲0.1878美元,相對上年而言,派息增加9%,去年新業務利潤爲21.84億美元,按實質匯率基準跌14%,按固定匯率基準降11%,惟經調整經營溢利有33.75億美元,按實質匯率計升4%,按固定匯率計則升8%。
值得留意,集團今年首兩個月保費等值銷售額較去年同期增15%,在中港兩地經濟復常下,當局已放寬旅遊限制,而來自內地的跨境流量正逐漸增加,情況該有利集團未來之產品銷售,加上本港客戶對儲蓄產品之需求亦相當殷切,帶動首兩個月的年度保費等值銷售大幅增長,同時亦有利今年業務之持續性增長。
2022年之投資環境相當困難,幾乎所有投資均要損手,如股市持續下跌,且幅度遠超預期,另債價亦因利息大幅上升而回落,至於商品價格方面亦因需求放緩而持續回軟,而在疫情困擾下,房產業及消費行業均續受打擊。持有股票的股東們都在等待好消息,待市場「回春」。在市場波動環境下,保誠分紅保單亦無可避免受到影響,然而公司已透過緩和調整機制令回報在長遠而言更爲穩定,務求收窄保單價值下調幅度 (較相關投資資產實際跌幅)。
集團將透過穩健的分紅業務基金架構及管理,檢視投資策略及考慮投資前景等相關因素,每年調整保單的預期價值,而在市場波動下,會作出週期以外的適時調整。
透過穩健及主動投資管理提供穩定且有吸引力的長線風險調整回報,可簡化基金結構,轉向低成本投資,節省投資費用,定期審視表現並剔除效率低和表現不佳的基金,另外,全面風險管理,靈活投資策略,並引入具有品質的篩選,以避免長遠回落的風險,更重要的是,對負債時刻會保持謹慎。
整個保險業最困難時刻該已過,展望未來,在經濟持續復常下,行業該具相當商機,亦可回覆穩定增長。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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