小摩：風險情緒將逆轉
摩根大通策略師Marko Kolanovic表示，推動股市在今年上漲的風險情緒將逆轉，銀行業動盪、OPEC+減產對石油市場的衝擊以及經濟增長放緩等不利因素將推動股市回到2022年的低點。
Marko Kolanovic週一在給客戶的一份報告中寫道：“美聯儲表示無意在今年降息，但風險資產卻出現了前所未有的反彈，歐洲股市接近歷史高點，美國股市收復了近期的失地。”“我們預計，未來幾個月，風險情緒將出現逆轉，市場將重新下探去年的低點。”
儘管利率上升影響了美國和歐洲等地的企業利潤、導致經濟增長放緩，同時還引發了銀行業危機，但股市今年迄今爲止仍保持了韌性。標普500指數在去年下跌近20%之後，在今年第一季度上漲了7%。隨着交易員加大押注美聯儲將在銀行系統的壓力下停止收緊貨幣政策，科技股的強勢表現則推動納斯達克100指數自1月初以來上漲了20%。
不過，在Marko Kolanovic看來，過去幾周流入股市的資金“沒有什麼意義”，主要是由系統性投資者、空頭擠壓和芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數(VIX)下跌所推動的。
VIX指數目前已跌至20以下，表明投資者相信銀行業危機將在短期內得到遏制。然而，Marko Kolanovic將目前的市場狀況描述爲“暴風雨前的寧靜”。他表示：“值得注意的是，風險情緒就像手風琴一樣，限制性利率給各種利差交易帶來了問題，隨後收益率的回落又緩解了部分壓力。”“儘管各大央行仍在溝通，但它們在對抗通脹和抵制市場降息預期方面還有很多工作要做。因此，最初的壓力來源——利率將持續更長時間——可能會重新出現。”
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