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中信證券:醫療板塊成長確定性依舊顯著,關注疫後復甦產業新機遇
格隆匯 03-29 16:38

本文來自格隆匯專欄:中信證券研究,作者:陳竹 韓世通 宋碩 甘壇煥 沈睦鈞 朱奕彰 王凱旋 曾令鵬

2023Q1國內疫情防控放開後診療和服務逐步復甦,疊加醫保結餘創歷史新高以及整個生物醫藥產業鼓勵創新和國產自主可控的強政策,中信證券預計醫藥行業各板塊將迎來強勢復甦和估值修復,建議關注後疫情時代高確定性的投資機會。中信證券對重點覆蓋的62家公司2023Q1業績進行前瞻預測,希望從板塊和個股層面提供思路及指引。

疫情後復甦開啟,關注各板塊高確定性機會。

2月以來全國範圍內疫情後診療以及相關產品進出口復甦漸入佳境,疊加醫保結餘創歷史新高以及整個生物醫藥產業鼓勵創新和國產自主可控的強政策,醫藥板塊相繼迎來醫療大基建和科研補貼投入加大兩個強催化劑。

2023Q1醫藥行業各板塊預計大部分都將迎來環比改善藥品板塊仿製藥集採品種基本出清,創新藥被納入醫保後放量顯著;診療逐漸恢復有望推動第三方檢驗機構常規檢測業務及創新藥收入高速增長;疫苗消費需求有望疫情後加速反轉和兑現,尤其是受疫情影響較為嚴重的二類苗;中醫藥振興發展新政頒佈,文化自信背景下板塊發展新局面有望迎來持續利好兑現;醫療服務和消費板塊預計1-3月整體運營趨勢前低後高,Q1後有望逐漸恢復疫後的平穩增長趨勢,依然是長坡厚雪的長期黃金賽道;預測CXO板塊龍頭公司常規業務未來持續快速增長,新冠週期過後成長韌性和工程師紅利優勢仍將繼續顯現;科研服務和生命科學板塊預計Q1因為疫情恢復短期承壓,科研補貼加大的大背景下,年內有望季度間收入和盈利均環比加速;醫療設備板塊需求剛性疊加集採免疫,患者入院快速恢復,2023Q1業績恢復較快,醫療大基建背景下依然為最受益的強勢板塊;耗材和IVD隨診療量逐月恢復,集採新政以及DRGs逐布落地的政策下,板塊價值和估值有望迎來回歸。

風險因素:

醫保控費降價風險;市場競爭日益激烈風險;個股業績不達預期風險。

投資策略:

建議關注1)研發管線豐富的龍頭和創新研發驅動的製藥公司;2)疫苗產業鏈;3)消費升級趨勢下的大健康消費龍頭企業;4)醫療服務及商業藥店領域的企業5)“賣水者”邏輯下的藥品產業鏈相關企業6)直接受益於創新審評和進口替代的國產中高端醫療器械龍頭

注:本文節選自中信證券於2023年3月27日發佈的《醫療健康產業點評-2023Q1業績前瞻: 板塊成長確定性依舊顯著,關注疫後復甦產業新機》

分析師:陳竹 醫療健魔產業食席分機師 S1010520120001;韓世通 藥錄和創新產業鏈首彥分析師 S1010516100003;宋碩 醫療產業誕首席分析師  S1010522030002;沈瞼鈞 醫療產業鏈分機師  S1010521010006;朱奕彰 醫療產業鏈分析師  S1010521030004;王凱麗 品產業鏈分析師  S1010522120001;甘旗 藥品食席分機師  S1010522070002

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