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全球原油市場的“牛市思維”破滅了

全球知名石油交易員Pierre Andurand:持有石油是“目前地球上最不時髦的事”。

受美國銀行業危機及經濟衰退擔憂等因素影響,本月油價暴跌,WTI原油期貨本月暴跌,目前已跌破每桶70美元。

媒體稱,在油價徘徊在15個月低點附近之際,如果問市場將走向何方,幾乎所有頂級石油交易商或交易員包括託克集團、皮埃爾·安杜蘭(Pierre Andurand)都認爲:油價反彈階段已經到來。但是交易數據卻顯示出截然不同的情況,許多人實際上並沒有建立多頭頭寸,相反,看空投機者似乎佔據了主導地位。

過去兩週,投機者已將WTI原油期貨多頭頭寸削減至十多年來最低水平,而押注油價下行的頭寸達到了四年來的最高水平。期權市場在衡量看跌能力的所謂“看跌期權傾斜”中,也表現出類似的悲觀情緒。

目前,市場對今年晚些時候的反彈幾乎沒有信心。衡量石油市場健康狀況的一項指標——WTI即時交割期貨與6個月後交割期貨之間的價差——正在收窄,因爲交易員預計未來的漲幅會更小;2023年12月交割與2024年12月交割的期貨價差已降至今年的最低水平。

在期權市場,一名參與者在一筆期權交易上斥資6000萬美元,押注WTI原油期貨將在7月至10月間跌至每桶60美元。交易商表示,這是今年最昂貴的交易之一。

這反映出原油市場一段時間以來普遍存在的一種不安局勢。由於美國石油產量停滯不前,中國需求預計將反彈,而俄羅斯產量預計將下降,油價的長期前景基本看漲。但短期內的不利因素巨大,隨着美國銀行體系疲弱可能引發全面衰退的猜測升溫,本月油價大跌。

本月,就連最看好油價前景的銀行之一高盛也發生轉變,下調了對布倫特原油年底價格的預期。

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場公司(RBC Capital Markets)的董事總經理Michael Tran表示:

從基本面來看,油價將走高,市場上仍有很多多頭,但宏觀方面引發的恐懼因素上升導致了倉位崩潰。

全球知名石油交易員Pierre Andurand在3月23日發推表示,持有石油是“目前地球上最不時髦的事”。據報道,他的主要基金——商品自由交易增強基金,今年下跌了約40%。

油價樂觀主義者指出,當前市場疲軟的部分原因是俄羅斯石油出口居高不下,法國煉油廠罷工使原油供應充足,這些因素可能在未來幾周內消失。

此外,儘管低油價對持有多頭頭寸的交易員來說是痛苦的,但如果油價保持溫和,消費者將受益。這也有可能減輕通脹壓力,緩解美聯儲抗通脹的負擔。

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