銀行業壓力標誌美股熊市步入痛苦的尾聲階段
摩根士丹利分析師Michael Wilson表示，美國銀行體系面臨的壓力，可能標誌着美股熊市結束的痛苦和“惡性”開始。該策略師在一份報告中寫道:“由於美聯儲/美國聯邦存款保險公司(FDIC)對銀行存款的支持，許多股票投資者都在問，這是否是另一種形式的量化寬鬆，因此要‘冒險’。我們認爲，事實並非如此，相反，隨着信貸可得性下降擠壓經濟增長，這代表着熊市開始進入尾聲。”
此外，Wilson還認爲，在股市風險溢價從目前的230基點升至400基點之前，標普500仍將缺乏吸引力，並補充稱，熊市的最後一部分可能是惡性的，而且高度相關，股價通過股票風險溢價飆升而大幅下跌，這在一個人的投資組合中很難防止或捍衛。
據瞭解，Wilson在去年正確預測了美股的拋售和10月份的反彈，該策略師是華爾街最堅定的看跌者之一。
值得一提的是，硅谷銀行倒閉和瑞士信貸(CS.US)股票遭拋售，引發了人們對全球金融體系健康狀況的擔憂，同時令市場動盪不安。然而，由於投資者正評估瑞銀集團同意收購瑞士信貸的影響，並期待美聯儲週三的利率決定，美國期貨週一走穩。
對此，Wilson認爲，銀行體系的持續動盪應該會導致投資者關注在限制性信貸條件下不斷惡化的增長前景。而過去一週發生的事件意味着，大部分經濟體的信貸可用性正在下降，這可能是最終讓市場參與者相信獲利預估過高的催化劑，信貸緊縮的風險已大幅增加。
Wilson寫道:“這正是熊市結束的方式——一種不可預見的催化劑，事後看來顯然會迫使市場參與者承認一直襬在他們面前的事情。”
最後，Wilson預計，隨着財報季臨近，分析師將大幅下調預期，而企業則準備大幅下調業績指引。這位策略師建議投資防禦性、低貝塔係數的行業和股票，同時告誡人們不要認爲大型科技股不受增長擔憂的影響。
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