交銀國際:銀行業動盪或加速美國銀行業存款搬家至貨幣市場基金
交銀國際發表報告表,美國硅谷銀行的倒閉來自於資產與負債端的共同衝擊,硅谷銀行倒下的背後在其隱藏在「水面之下的冰山」,即「持有到期」證券的「未實現虧損」,負債端與資產端的共振,使得「未實現虧損」走向了「已實現損失」,令這家原是全球創投圈依賴的金融銀行就此隕落。考慮到債券市場的巨大回撤,巨額的「未實現虧損」非一家獨有,很可能遍及國際銀行、保險、公募基金、養老基金、主權財富基金,但危機的發生需要「負債端」與「資產端」共振,從負債端的壓力來看分析的重點應該放在國際銀行體系。
該行認為,美國銀行業系統性風險不高,但需高度重視結構性風險:硅谷銀行「未實現虧損」的比重遠高於行業水平,這有硅谷銀行自身原因,但不可忽視美國銀行體系「水面之下的冰山」巨量的「持有到期」證券及其「未實現的虧損」,拆解可發現,巨額虧損原因在於「量增價減」,但在「量難降、價升還需看聯儲」的格局下,美國銀行體系很難通過自身來實現降風險。美國銀行體系的風險已經與美聯儲隨後的貨幣政策直接捆綁,這很可能影響到美聯儲的貨幣政策。
影響方面,交銀國際指需要對全球的金融風險保持密切關注,尤其是經濟更弱,但卻受到地緣政治衝擊、通脹衝擊更明顯的歐元區。近期銀行業的動盪局勢很可能會加速美國銀行業存款搬家至貨幣市場基金的趨勢,這將進一步增大美國銀行體系的負債端壓力。
對於美聯儲,目前左手的風險與右手的通脹可能大致平衡,短期不宜對美聯儲抱有過高期望,美聯儲很可能不會立即轉向不加息,而是保持25個基點的慢加息。未來則逐步轉向「防風險」。未來如果通脹及就業沒有持續超預期,或者銀行體系的危機進一步大幅蔓延、升級,美聯儲很可能會加碼BTFP等結構性工具,維持銀行間流動性平穩,並可能立即終止加息甚至開展階段性降息。(wl/u)
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