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通脹降溫添一有力證據
uSMART盈立智投 03-07 20:02

紐約聯儲(NY FED)在當地時間週一公佈的一項統計數據顯示,在新冠疫情於全球範圍內爆發近三年後,全球供應鏈已恢復正常。最新的數據顯示,全球供應壓力實際上已降至正常水平以下,紐約聯儲公佈的2月份全球供應鏈壓力指數爲-0.26,自2019年8月以來首次達到負值。

紐約聯儲.png

恢復正常——2月份,紐約聯儲統計的全球供應壓力指數降至正常水平以下

零這一數字標誌着歷史平均水平,任何方向的變化都標誌着與這一趨勢的標準差。全球供應鏈中斷最嚴峻時期,接近癱瘓的全球供應鏈使得該指標曾在2021年12月一度達到4.31的峯值。

在過去10個月中,航運擁堵緩解、零部件短缺緩解以及消費需求趨於減弱,有7個月該指標出現下降,最新數據則反映出更大程度改善。

紐約聯儲表示:“大多數因素都有顯著的下行影響,其中最大程度的下行貢獻影響來自歐洲地區的交貨時間。”

紐約聯儲表示,截至2月的最近十個月內,有7個月該指數都在下降,體現了航運擁堵水平大幅減緩、零部件短缺緩解和消費者需求疲軟等影響。其中,大多數因素都對2月指數下降有顯著貢獻,但影響最大的是歐洲地區的交貨時間。

該瞭解,指數彙集了27個變量,涵蓋了從跨境運輸成本到歐元區、中國、日本、韓國、英國和美國等國家和地區的國家級製造業數據等方方面面。

美聯儲過去一段時間曾多次表示,供應鏈壓力最近幾年一直是高通脹的一大推手。如今,紐約聯儲公佈的供應鏈壓力指數表明,在全球範圍內運輸貨物更爲容易、難度更低,或許能夠大幅減緩價格壓力。

瑞銀此前公佈的一份報告顯示,其跟蹤的全球供應鏈壓力綜合指數已低於正常水平,除了2019年的1個月,該指數已降至2013年來的最低水平。瑞銀在報告中表示,由於需求不平衡現象改善,航空、船運成本下降等因素,全球供應鏈壓力明顯緩解,全球通脹水平在見頂之後,或許正逐步接近重要的下行拐點。

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