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AH股“三桶油”集體飆升創新高,發生了什麼?

3月7日,三桶油迎來爆發,$中國石化(600028.SH)$盤中漲近7%,股價刷新四年新高;$中國石油(601857.SH)$盤中漲近6%,股價刷新近九個月新高;$中國海油(600938.SH)$盤中漲停,股價更是一舉刷新上市以來新高。

港股方面,三家公司$中國海洋石油(00883.HK)$、$中國石油化工股份(00386.HK)$、$中國石油股份(00857.HK)$也創下數年新高。

據證券時報3月6日報道,上交所總經理蔡建春兩會上提交了三份提案,其中包括促進央企估值水平合理迴歸,推動央企上市公司質量提升,其建議國資委、財政部等央企主管部委協同中國證監會,促進央企估值水平合理迴歸,推動央企上市公司質量提高、價值挖掘和提升。

另一方面,紐交所原油期貨近期連續回升,近六個交易日累計漲近7%,分析稱油價處於高位將直接提高油公司收入和利潤,並保障未來油服的景氣度。

央企石油公司有望迎價值重估

資料顯示,受《國企改革三年行動》方案推動,國內央企此前開始推行ROE、市值和利潤增速等方面的考覈要求。中石油公告顯示,截至2022年底,集團層面六個方面86項改革任務、企業層面7666項改革任務全部收官,完成率已達到100%。

估值方面,申萬宏源表示,目前中石油和中海油的PB仍明顯低於2010-2014高油價時期和2019年底疫情前的表現,且國內以民營大煉化爲代表的行業龍頭估值低於海外標的。目前的石化產品價格整體與歷史平均相當,以大煉化爲代表的新型石油化工緻力於技術進步帶動生產成本下降,將具有長期持續的競爭力。

民生證券也認爲,油價易漲難跌,且國央企估值有望提升,近期國資委多次提出,要推動中國特色估值體系建設,聚焦實現“增一穩四提升”目標、啓動國有企業對標世界一流企業價值創造行動,而當前“三桶油”估值都處於較低水平,未來國企估值有望迎來重塑空間。

油服行業預計進入上行週期

申萬宏源分析稱,目前原油價格在歷史中高位,受OPEC堅持減產及俄羅斯產量下降影響,對於國內自身擁有上遊油氣資源和配套下遊煉廠的國企來說,實現一體化佈局的利潤表現更好。

資料顯示,油服行業景氣度變化受油價變化和上遊資本開支影響,行業景氣度可由油價和上遊資本開支判斷,石油公司的上遊資本開支決策與油價正向相關。

信達證券分析稱,由於美聯儲爲了復甦經濟將加息趨緩甚至採取降息措施、沙特主導的OPEC+通過控制產量支撐油價、非OPEC無法大規模增產,油價出現大幅暴跌可能性較小,油價或將持續高位運行。

根據Rystad Energy預測,2022年全球上遊油田服務投資將達到4250億美元,同比增長提升18.8%,約670億美元,爲10年來最高增長。

Rystad Energy預測,2022年全球油田服務採購額有望達到6010億美元,同比增長16.2%,未來將繼續保持增長,預計2025年底將增長至6770億美元。油服投資額與採購額的大幅上漲推動油服行業進入上行週期。

東海證券也認爲,油服行業將進入長期景氣上行空間。當前國內油服公司整體估值均處歷史低位,保持在1X-3X之間,其中海油工程自2022年以來市銷率已低於國外油服行業平均值,與歷史上油服的階段性表現不同,油服行業將進入長期價值修復空間。

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