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中信证券:锂价指引维持乐观,海外锂产品溢价或对国内形成支撑
格隆汇 03-07 08:48

本文来自格隆汇专栏: 中信证券研究;作者:拜俊飞 敖翀

得益于锂价持续上升,2022年第四季度南美盐湖提锂企业经营业绩同比高增。海外主要锂厂商对2023年锂价维持乐观指引,海外锂产品价格对国内出现明显溢价,或对国内锂价形成支撑。全球主要锂产地供应增长不及预期,上游供应扰动加速产业链去库,需求回暖有望带动锂价止跌。建议关注锂原料自给率高及出口业务占比较高的公司。

22Q4锂价高位运行,南美盐湖提锂企业盈利同比高增。

2022Q4南美主要盐湖提锂企业锂业务收入同比大幅增长,Albemarle、SQM、Livent和Allkem营收分别同比增长411%、458%、78%和264%,环比分别变化+38%、+8%、-6%和+1%。SQM和Allkem锂产品销量同比分别+38%/-5%,环比分别+3%/-16%;产品售价同比分别上升303%和274%,环比分别上升5%和8%。受益于锂价持续上升,南美盐湖锂企业营收和利润保持高增趋势。

南美盐湖提锂企业对2023年锂价展望乐观。

南美部分盐湖提锂企业调整2023年的锂产品定价策略,其中Albemarle计划2023年将不再签署固定价格合约,预计2023年锂产品售价将同比上升55%-65%;Livent以固定价格合约锁定2023年70%的锂产品售价,且预计固定价格将较2022年均价上升40%。据此测算,2023年Albemarle和Livent的锂产品售价将高达6万美元/吨(约合40万元/吨)。SQM和Allkem对2023年锂价展望同样乐观。在国内锂价快速下跌阶段,南美地区锂价表现坚挺,呈现出滞后特征。

海外锂价对国内出现明显溢价,或对锂价形成支撑。

根据亚洲金属网数据,截至2023年3月初,欧洲和美国市场锂价为6.7万美元/吨,折合45万元/吨,同期国内锂价已跌至约37万元/吨,海外市场锂价对国内溢价超过20%。考虑到海外锂生产企业对2023年锂价指引维持升势,海外锂产品溢价在2023年或继续拉阔,出口窗口打开或对国内锂价形成一定支撑。

预计2023年南美盐湖新增锂供应约5万吨,同比增长27%。

按照各公司规划,预计2023年南美盐湖提锂新增产能约19万吨,除传统盐湖提锂企业新增产能,此轮锂价上升周期中新建的南美盐湖提锂项目将首次释放产能。此前部分南美盐湖提锂新建项目进度不及预期,多数项目延期至2023年投产,市场预期2023年南美盐湖锂供应将集中释放。但考虑到盐湖提锂项目产能爬坡节奏,我们预计2023年南美盐湖提锂企业的实际新增产量5.4万吨,较2022年产量约增27%。

海外锂资源供应增长不及预期,需求回暖有望带动行情止跌反弹。

受制于矿山品位下降和扩产项目推进受阻,2023年澳洲锂矿厂商供应或不及预期。受多种因素扰动,部分南美盐湖提锂企业在建项目推进缓慢,预计2023年新增供给有限。宜春地区整顿锂矿生产有望进一步缓解锂供应过剩的压力,加速产业链去库。随着经济复苏带动下游需求回暖,预计中游材料厂排产增加,采购补库情绪渐浓,叠加上游供给扰动加剧,锂价有望止跌,并带动锂板块反弹行情。

风险因素:

下游需求增长不及预期;锂价大幅下跌的风险;企业产能扩张进度不及预期的风险;相关企业海外经营受阻的风险。

投资策略:

得益于锂价持续上升,2022年第四季度南美盐湖锂企业经营业绩同比高增。海外主要锂厂商对2023年锂价维持乐观指引,海外锂产品价格相对国内出现明显溢价,或对国内锂价形成支撑。全球主要锂产地供应增长不及预期,上游供应扰动加速产业链去库,需求回暖有望带动锂价止跌。建议关注锂原料自给率高及出口业务占比较高的公司。

注:本文节选自为中信证券2023 年3月6日发布的《金属丨锂价指引维持乐观,关注海外锂产品溢价:南美锂盐湖跟踪(2022Q4)

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