《大行報告》瑞銀:市場對「電訊三雄」續抱信心 首選股改中移動(00941.HK)
瑞銀髮表報告,指過去兩週該行在內地進行推廣活動,會晤逾20名投資者。整體而言,最少在未來一至兩年,未見中資電訊股基本面改善的可持續性有重大阻礙。「電訊三雄」去年純利增長已獲良好指引,絕大部分投資者相信增長勢頭可延續至今年。對「電訊三雄」現時基本面上的憂慮之一在於盈利增長是由資本開支密度放緩所帶動。如果企業相關(雲端及數據中心)折舊開始增加但毛利率未見改善,則盈利增長或引起憂慮,但由於該等業務處起步階段,短期而言不是重大憂慮。
報告稱,自從美國投資禁令後,「電訊三雄」投資者基礎有重大改變。南向投資者(北水)持倉佔現時H股可流通股份達約40%。瑞銀稱,主要會晤三類投資者,包括收息一族,投資H股主因股息吸引,認爲合理估值是股息率介乎5%至6%;另有基本面投資者,喜好H股因估值更吸引,他們會考慮多個因素,如股息率、市盈率、市賬率,相信基本面改善可帶動估值逐漸重評;還有增長型投資者,通常喜好A股多於H股,因流通股相對較少,且股價更波動,但當H股呈顯着折讓時也會投資H股。根據與投資者的討論,在如何爲「電訊三雄」定價上市場未有共識,特別是A股。據討論,即使首兩類投資者未有料到本年至今「電訊三雄」急升,但也認爲現時估值在合理範圍。
瑞銀稱,本年至今中移動(00941.HK)H股累升約24%,中移動A股(600941.SH)及聯通(00762.HK)(600050.SH)及中電信(00728.HK)(601728.SH)A股及H股則升介乎30%至60%。現時中移動H股估值相當於預測今年股息率8%,以及0.9倍市賬率、8.6倍市盈率。該行維持對板塊正面看法,首選股改爲中移動H股,因風險回報更吸引。
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