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瑞銀王宗豪:料5,000至6,000億人幣零售存款流入股市
阿思達克 03-02 13:54
瑞銀中國股票策略研究主管王宗豪發表最新中國股票策略,預計在降低消費、避險和減少購房的共同作用下,過去三年中國家庭額外累計了13萬億元人民幣零售存款(僅2022年就達到7至8萬億元人民幣)。根據海外經驗,這是家庭在疫情封控期間的典型行為,隨著經濟體放鬆防疫管控,部分超額儲蓄將重新投入風險資產(如股票),從而拉高當地股市。 在中國,瑞銀預計5,000億至6,000億元人民幣零售存款可能流入股市,鑒於投資者偏好差異以及存款人和股東的不同特徵,流入規模的不確定性較高。儘管如此,潛在上行空間巨大,2015年中國A股的反彈吸引了約2萬億元人民幣零售資金流入,帶動A股指數上漲147%。國內外經驗顯示零售資金一般偏好軟體、金融和科技,對食品飲料和家庭個人用品興趣不大。 瑞銀對海外市場的研究顯示,在疫情封控期間,許多國家的家庭存款大幅上升,當這些經濟體放鬆防疫管控、消費者信心有所改善時,隨著消費者增加支出和風險資產投資,存款增長放緩。以美國為例,2020年零售存款增長3.3萬億美元,但2021年降至僅0.8萬億美元,減少了2.5萬億美元。同時,2021年零售經紀現金餘額帳戶增加了1,500億美元,拉動當年股市上漲27%。 根據美國經驗,假設在中國轉換率為6%(即超額可用儲蓄8-10萬億元人民幣的6%),瑞銀估計5,000至6,000億元人民幣存款可能流入股市。儘管這算不上巨額資金,但瑞銀注意到過去5年股票基金年度發行量平均約為1萬億元,2015年牛市中零售資金流入為2萬億元(融資餘額增加),因此瑞銀認為5,000至6,000億元人民幣的流入量對股市仍比較可觀。另外,零售資金也可能通過公募基金流入股市(未計入上述預測)。 瑞銀對海內外市場的分析顯示零售資金在出現以下情況/跡象時會加速進入股市:一是股市剛開始上漲後(即零售資金一般晚於股市表現),二是存款增長開始放慢時,三是隨著消費者信心提升–零售資金流入平均比消費者信心見底晚五至六個月。國內消費者信心自去年12月開始改善,加上近幾個季度A股市場出現一些向好趨勢,未來三至六個月零售資金入市的條件已成熟。 瑞銀預計A股將最受益於增量零售資金流入,而港股在一定程度上也可能受益,南向投資者目前約佔總市值的11%。儘管瑞銀依然對今年整體中國股市持樂觀看法,但近期地緣政治不確定性的增加帶來些許拖累。瑞銀目前更看好A股,之後依次為H股和中概股,以反映潛在的零售資金流入、對地緣政治不確定性的敏感性更低以及電商行業的競爭可能加劇。瑞銀將券商加入看好的行業之列,同時更仔細地篩選板塊,目前瑞銀在食品飲料中更看好白酒和啤酒。
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