瑞銀汪濤料內地今年經濟增長目標設於5%左右
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤發表兩會前瞻,指穩增長是首要任務。她預計,在即將於3月5日召開的全國人大會議上,政府將重申穩增長至關重要,政策定調積極寬鬆。
在該行目前今年GDP增長4.9%的基準預測下,她預計政府會將今年經濟增長目標設定在5%左右,宏觀政策保持支持寬鬆基調,包括將一般公共預算赤字率小幅擴大至GDP的3%,地方政府專項債限額小幅擴大至3.7萬至3.8萬億元人民幣,以及進一步放鬆房地產政策。
另外,瑞銀預計今年央行會再降準一次,不會下調MLF等政策利率,但LPR或將進一步小幅下調,信貸增速溫和回升至10%。該行預計政策會繼續強調提振消費,但不會出臺全國性的大規模消費刺激或收入補貼。信心修復、科技創新與供應鏈自主可控將是政策關注重點。
若超預期的政策支持在兩會及其之後落實兌現,2023年中國GDP增長有可能加快至5.5%至6%,高於該行目前4.9%的基準預測。
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