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中信證券:春節擾動暫時影響挖機銷量,不改工程機械回暖大趨勢
格隆匯 03-01 10:09

本文來自格隆匯專欄:中信證券研究,作者:劉海博 李越 李睿鵬

根據中國工程機械工業協會公佈的數據,2023年1月銷售各類挖掘機10443台,同比下降33.1%,下滑的主要原因系春節假期擾動;當前時點看,國內工程機械行業已有好轉趨勢,未來隨着社融如預期大規模投放,基建開工量有望逐漸提速,工程機械行業下游需求有望持續轉好。近期主機廠對2023年內銷的預期進一步上調,從原來的下滑轉變為持平甚至略增,疊加2023年以來核心主機廠出口業務持續高增,全年工程機械行業業績同比轉正為大勢所趨。我們維持工程機械行業“強於大市”評級。

2023年1月銷售各類挖掘機10443台,同比下降33.1%。

根據中國工程機械工業協會公佈的數據,2023年1月銷售各類挖掘機10443台,同比下降33.1%,其中國內銷量3437台,同比下降58.5%;出口銷量7006台,同比下降4.41%,下滑的主要原因系春節假期擾動。

房地產需求邊際改善&基建投資不斷髮力共同利好國內工程機械行業需求。

雖然近期居民購房加槓桿意願較弱,但考慮“保交樓”專項借款逐步落地、下調住房公積金貸款利率以及首套住房貸款利率政策動態調整機制的建立,我們預計未來房地產市場信心或將得到提振,房地產需求有望邊際改善。同時,2023年1月信貸數據創歷史新高,未來隨着社融如預期大規模投放,基建開工量有望逐漸提速,工程機械行業下游需求有望持續轉好。在投資者交流會上,多家核心主機廠表示近期對2023年內銷的預期進一步上調,從原來的下滑轉變為持平甚至略增,疊加2023年以來核心主機廠出口業務持續高增,全年工程機械行業業績同比轉正為大勢所趨。

海外需求持續高景氣,核心主機廠出口業務佔比持續提升。

近年來以三一重工為代表的國內工程機械龍頭企業不斷加大海外市場開拓力度,產品已經覆蓋到了很多客户,正在逐漸形成渠道優勢和口碑效應,未來海外市場份額有望進一步提升。在投資者交流會上,多家核心主機廠表示2023年出口業務增速有望保持30%-50%,延續高增態勢。

風險因素:

基建投資不及預期;房地產需求恢復不及預期;海外工程機械需求不及預期等。

投資策略

當前時點看,國內工程機械行業已有好轉趨勢,未來隨着國內工程機械行業下游需求持續轉好,疊加核心主機廠出口業務如預期持續高增,2023年工程機械行業業績同比轉正乃大勢所趨。我們維持工程機械行業“強於大市”評級。

注:本文節選自自中信證券研究部於2023年2月28日發佈的《《挖機銷量跟蹤快報一春節擾動暫時影響挖機銷量,不改工程機械回愛大趨勢》報吿

報吿作者:劉海博  製造產業首席分析師 S1010512080011 ;李越 機械首席分析師 S1010521010008 ;李睿鵬 機械分析師S1010519040003

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