海底撈：降本增效成效凸顯，模型優化打開盈利空間
作者：丁浙川、李秀敏、潘威全、李星馨
來源：招商證券零售思享+
海底撈發佈2022年業績預告，報告期內公司預計實現營業收入不低於346億元/-15.8%，預計全年實現歸母淨利潤不低於13億元，去年同期淨虧損41.6億元；其中22H2公司預計實現歸母淨利潤不低於15.7億元，扣除票據收益3.3億元後，預計實現歸母淨利潤不低於12.4億元，業績遠超市場預期。作爲火鍋行業龍頭，海底撈的服務、管理、品牌以及供應鏈能力依舊是業界的天花板水平。疫情期間公司持續推進降本增效，優化人力及產品結構，新單店模型盈利能力顯著提升。隨着後續啄木鳥計劃的推進以及疫後復甦帶來的客流恢復，公司單店翻檯率持續上升，有望推動業績加速釋放，建議投資者積極關注。
正文
降本增效成果凸顯，海底撈業績遠超預期。2022年公司預計實現收入不低於346億元/-15.8%，營收小幅下滑主要系國內多地疫情反覆以及“啄木鳥”計劃下餐廳數量減少。預計全年實現歸母淨利潤不低於13億元（其中含特海國際預計實現淨虧損0.36-0.45億美元），去年同期淨虧損41.6億元；其中22H2公司預計實現歸母淨利潤不低於15.7億元，扣除票據收益3.3億元後，預計實現歸母淨利潤不低於12.4億元，去年同期實現歸母淨虧損42.6億元，下半年公司經營業績遠超市場預期。在營收承壓的環境下，公司業績同比大幅扭虧爲盈主要得益於以下兩大因素：（1）疫情期間公司積極推進降本增效，單店模型顯著優化。（2）啄木鳥計劃推行一年後，公司經營效率持續改善，公司翻檯率上升趨勢明顯。
持續優化人力及產品結構，單店模型改善打開品牌新盈利空間。疫情前海底撈單店員工數約爲100-120人，爲應對疫情公司主動優化員工結構並提高外包員工佔比，目前單店員工人數約爲60-80人，管理費用率相較疫情前大幅優化，並且疫後有望繼續維持穩定。疊加近年來公司推進新品速度加快，產品結構優化下帶來的品牌毛利率逐漸提升，新單店模型下公司盈利能力有望大幅改善。
“啄木鳥”計劃成效初顯，單店翻檯率上升趨勢顯著。公司持續推進“啄木鳥”計劃，關閉100多家店效較低的門店，以提高存續門店的經營效率。根據草根調研，22Q4預計整體翻檯率已同比恢復80%-90%，23年1月預計整體翻檯率已恢復去年同期水平，單店翻檯率上升趨勢顯著。
投資建議：作爲火鍋行業的龍頭，海底撈的服務、管理、品牌以及供應鏈能力依舊是業界的天花板水平。疫情期間公司持續推進降本增效，優化人力及產品結構，新單店模型盈利能力顯著提升。隨着啄木鳥計劃的持續推進以及疫後復甦帶來的客流恢復，公司單店翻檯率逐步上升，有望推動業績加速釋放。預計2022-2024年間公司實現歸母淨利潤13.3/33.7/50.4億元，給予海底撈25倍PE，對應24年目標價區間爲25.5港元，上調至“強烈推薦”評級。
風險提示：疫情反覆阻礙客流恢復，市場競爭加劇，原材料價格上升。
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