標普22年中以來首次上調中國房企展望,龍湖(0960.HK)維穩投資級
春節之後,房地產行業利好消息頻頻傳出,冰封已久的國際信用評級亦出現積極信號。
2月9日,標普確認龍湖集團的投資級評級,展望上調為穩定。這是2022年中以來,三大國際評級機構首次上調中國房企展望。
標普認為,自2022年11月以來,中國政府對部分房地產開發商採取了一系列支持措施
,龍湖集團是其中的主要受益者,此外龍湖的經營性收入持續增長,公司資金流動性正在增強,因此維持公司投資級評級,展望上調為穩定。
標普提到,龍湖已經與六大國有銀簽署戰略合作協議,預計龍湖獲得了不少於3000億人民幣的信貸額度,用於發展、再融資和收購,並獲得了7億元的無抵押內保外貸借款。此外,龍湖還成功發行了一支20億元的中債增信債券。
在標普看來,龍湖非限制性現金比例很高,受益於公司強大的銷售回款率,以及經營性收入的強勁增長,這些資金進一步提高了龍湖的財務安全度,可以覆蓋公司到期的短期債務,2023年龍湖沒有境外債務到期。
截至2022上半年末,龍湖集團連續六年保持“三道紅線”綠檔,現金短債比為4.07,平均賬期為6.28年,一年以內到期的短債佔比約10.1%,平均融資成本僅3.99%,一系列指標均維持行業內的較高水準。
受疫情、調控升級、金融政策趨緊等綜合因素影響,地產行業銷售降至冰點,部分房企資金鍊吃緊,甚至出現債務違約,三大評級機構頻繁下調中國房企信用評級。據中國房地產協會統計,2021年下半年以來,三大國際評級機構下調房企評級超過250次,有70多家房企主動撤銷評級,其中不乏部分頭部房企。
三大國際評級機構的信用評級,是房企海外融資的重要信用背書,經歷評級下調潮之後,海外融資渠道基本停滯。據CRIC數據顯示,2022年100家典型房企全年新增融資總額為8241億元,同比減少38%。其中,境外債權融資下降尤為明顯,同比下降了69%。
業內人士分析,標普上調龍湖集團展望,釋放出國際評級機構對優質中國房企信心迴歸的積極信號。1月11日,標普發佈報吿《China Property Is On The Cusp Of A Recovery 中國房地產業復甦曙光乍現》,認為行業只會變得更好。報吿分析表示,2022年末推出的政策為行業的危機局面畫上句號,行業將在23年緩慢復甦。隨着利好政策持續落地,中國房企信用評級有望提升,從而提高境外融資機會,進一步鞏固房地產資金流動性。
聯合資信評級認為,“長期看,構建房地產行業良性循環將為行業主要發展方向,房企經營模式可能發生變化,但資源仍將向頭部優質房企集中。”
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