美股何時會觸底？策略師在工業企業裁員人數中找到了答案
來源：智通財經
每個人都想知道美股何時會觸底，加拿大皇家銀行(RBC)的策略師從工業企業裁員人數中看到了答案。
一月份還沒有結束，就有超過6.85萬名科技行業的員工被解僱。對於科技行業來說，裁員是在員工人數迅速增加之後出現的，在新冠早期居家辦公模式期間，科技公司急切地進行了招聘。到2021財年結束時，$亞馬遜(AMZN.US)$僱傭了160多萬名員工，比2019年的人數翻了一番。$Meta Platforms(META.US)$的員工人數在新冠疫情期間增長了約60%。
儘管之前沒有大肆擴招，現在連$陶氏化學(DOW.US)$、$3M(MMM.US)$等工業巨頭也在裁員。智通財經APP獲悉，週一，RBC的股票研究主管Lori Calvasina在一份報告中寫道，“裁員對工業企業來說是新鮮事，陶氏只裁減了2000個職位，但如果裁員人數激增，這可能意味着經濟正陷入衰退，市場即將觸底”。
Calvasina指出，工業企業往往在經濟衰退中大範圍裁員。十多年前，標普500指數在2009年3月美國房地產泡沫破裂後創下了676.53的低點。那是在工業企業宣佈裁員約6萬人之後不久，這是這場經濟衰退期間的最高裁員數。21世紀初的經濟衰退也展現了一幅有點類似的圖景，2002年10月的股市低點出現在工業企業裁員高峯之後。
Calvasina在報告寫道，“值得注意的是，在我們研究的每一個經濟壓力大的時期，工業領域都出現了裁員大高峯”。
可以肯定的是，數據仍然表明經濟狀況健康，經濟衰退可能永遠不會出現。去年第四季度，美國國內生產總值增長2.9%，與前一季度3.2%的增速相比略有放緩，但仍表明經濟強勁。
Calvasina寫道，“這一次，工業領域的裁員仍然非常少”。這“到目前爲止支持着軟着陸的論點，我們樂觀地認爲這種情況可以保持下去”。
她認爲，投資者也應該警惕，不要讓過去的表現決定有關未來的決策，但數據給了“我們在我們認爲股市全面觸底時會發生的事情清單中，需要再進行覈對的一件事”。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
