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大摩警告美股投資者勿追漲
uSMART盈立智投 01-30 19:58

華爾街知名空頭、摩根士丹利首席股票策略師Michael Wilson表示,在美股上漲時蜂擁而至的投資者將會感到失望,因爲他們是在與美聯儲進行對抗。Michael Wilson及其團隊表示:“股市走勢好轉開始讓許多投資者相信他們錯過了什麼,這迫使他們更積極地參與進來。我們認爲,近期的美股走勢更多地反映了1月份的季節性效應、以及在經歷了艱難的12月底和殘酷的一年之後的空頭回補。”

Michael Wilson及其團隊表示,企業業績實際上比預期的要差,尤其是在利潤率方面。他們補充稱:“其次,投資者似乎已經忘記了‘不要與美聯儲對抗’的基本原則。或許本週將成爲一個提醒。”美聯儲已基本確定在本週加息25個基點,連續第二次縮減加息幅度。近期公佈的一系列數據顯示,美聯儲抑制通脹的積極舉措正在發揮作用。

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標普500指數有望創下2019年以來最好的1月表現

自財報季開始以來,標普500指數一直在走高,延續了年初的漲勢。儘管經濟放緩的跡象越來越多,但投資者仍在獎勵那些業績超出預期的企業,同時減少對那些業績不及預期的公司的懲罰。有分析師將這一動態歸因於企業的重組努力和成本削減計劃增強了投資者的信心。

然而,Michael Wilson表示:“在我們看來,美聯儲不願轉向更爲溫和的立場。另外,2008年以來最嚴重的企業盈利衰退的現實正再次被錯誤定價。我們認爲,這應該會在短期內導致本輪熊市進入最後階段。”

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