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《大行報告》大摩下調龍湖(00960.HK)目標價至31元 評級「增持」
阿思達克 01-26 11:06
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,預計龍湖(00960.HK)2022財年將錄得行業以上水平的盈利增長,並擁有穩健的資產負債表及強勁租務增長。該行預期,集團租金按年增加15%至119億元人民幣,其中92億元人民幣來自購物中心,並有27億元人民幣來自出租公寓;物業管理穩步擴張,按年增長逾30%。該行料,集團綜合毛利率將收窄至20.2%,主要是受土地成本上升和降價導致較低的物業發展毛利率拖累。租金和物業管理毛利率應穩定在約75%和25%。另外,毛利率壓縮的影響應該大部分被收入增長、節省銷售及行政開支等所抵銷,從而導致核心盈利增長持平,30%的派息率意味著約5%的股息收益率。 該行將集團2022至24財年的每股盈測分別下調2%、11%、和14%,以反映2022財年房地產銷售下降和利潤率疲弱,目標價相應下調4%,由32.4元降至31元,評級為「增持」。不過,該行料春節期間零售銷售可能反彈,將有利於集團的購物中心業務,而中期催化劑則有2023財年下半年物業管理部門的潛在上市分拆。集團去年已向港交所提交申請,但因資本市場疲弱而推遲分拆。
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