《大行報告》高盛:今年本港住宅樓價跌幅預測降至一成 升長實集團(01113.HK)評級至「買入」
高盛發表研究報告指,本港去年住宅樓價累計下跌15%,成交量亦下滑37%,內地開放邊境以及美聯儲加息即將結束的預期,正在提升行業復甦的希望。從2022年10月底的水平來看,發展商的股價平均上漲34%,而當時的估值正處於歷史最低水平。然而,反彈幅度仍落後於恆生指數的47%增幅。發展商中,提供更高股息收益率或槓桿率更高的公司表現較好,新世界發展(00017.HK)、恆地(00012.HK)和嘉裏(00683.HK)的漲幅高於長實集團(01113.HK)、新地(00016.HK)和信置(00083.HK)。
該行表示,由於負擔能力減弱,本港對樓市的需求相對供應較弱。邊境開放可能會爲本港帶來額外的需求,但由於高昂的印花稅仍然存在,且按揭利率在未來3到6個月內仍將上揚,因此料利好因素將緩慢累積。該行認爲,房地產行業週期長,一年的調整不足以讓實體市場見底,相信隨着經濟前景改善及開放邊境,加上股市復甦帶來的財富效應,料2023財年的樓價將再下調10%(原預測跌15%),而2024至25財年則各升4%(原預測爲持平)。
該行將長實評級由「中性」上調至「買入」;維持新世界「買入」評級。該行又維持ESR(01821.HK)及新意網(01686.HK)的「買入」評級。
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