郭思治:大市目標直指去年第二季小雙頂
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市現已身處一月份之中旬,而直到執筆一刻止計,本月大市之形態仍暫屬先低而後高,恆指暫是由3日之低位19,303點升至13日之高位21,770點,即在短短9個交易日內,累積之升幅已達2,467點,論幅度實已不算小,該已可滿足月內之所需,且大市之升勢亦頗偏促,故經過一輪急升後,市勢於高台略見回吐及整固乃正常現象,惟即使如此,但恆指卻一直緊扣高台而不下,單從技術上看,可能表示大市之升勢仍有餘未盡,故在本月底之前,大市可能仍會進一步上尋月內之新高,再從年圖上看,後市之上望目標該為去年第二季之小雙頂,即去年4月4日之高位22,523點及6月28日之高位22,449點。
再看移動線方面之表現,由於恆指現已成功重越各組常用的平均移動線,論形態,整個大市已身處牛市一期之續尋頂之中,惟有一點需指出,恆指自去年10月31日低位14,597點開始之上升,至本月13日之高位21,770點止計,經過10週之快步急升後,累積之升幅已達7,173點,論幅度確已不算小,故即使大市技術上仍有機會再推升,但步伐亦會略放緩,加上農曆新年將至,傳統而言,期間投資者之入市意欲均會漸保守,故縱然大市能作進一步推升,惟市內卻未見有熾烈氣氛,在買賣漸趨審慎下,估計大市會漸進入整固之中,而期間較重要的支持該為10天線(約在21,017點左近)。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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