《即日市評》恆指反覆升 科網及內房股弱 比亞迪搶高
市場觀望美國將公布去年12月的通脹數據,以預測美聯儲局未來加息步伐,港股今日(12日)反覆上升。美股道指及納指隔夜各升0.8%及1.8%;執筆之時,美國10年期債券孳息率跌至3.522厘,美匯指數升至103.21,道指期貨最新跌28點或0.08%,納指期貨最新跌0.12%。內地去年12月CPI按年升1.8%符預期、去年12月PPI按年跌0.7%(市場預期原跌0.1%),上證綜指全日升1點或0.05%收3,163點,深證成指升0.23%,滬深兩市成交額6,815億人民幣。
恆指今日反覆上升,高開163點後,早段曾升262點一度高見21,698點,其後曾掉頭倒跌212點曾低見21,223點,午後反覆上升,全日升78點或0.4%,收21,514點;國指升不足1點或0.01%,收7,311點;但恆生科技指數跌60點或1.3%,收4,487點。大市全日成交總額1,595.84億元,滬、深港通南下交易淨流出5.68億及淨流入5.69億元人民幣。友邦(01299.HK)股價漲3.1%;比亞迪(01211.HK)股價搶高近5.3%,公司目標至2030年擬奪得印度電動車市場四成市佔率。
【比亞迪搶高 科網股回軟】
科網股回吐,騰訊(00700.HK)股價下滑2.6%收364元,阿里-SW(09988.HK)及美團-W(03690.HK)各走低1.9%及0.6%,快手-W(01024.HK)跌4.5%。匯豐環球研究發表報告指出,投資者關注中資互聯網股抽升後會否已經見頂,指近期中資互聯網股於多重消息推動下抽升,料未來市盈率及盈利增長或各再升25%,惟基本面尚未改善並較預期落後下,或導致相關股份股價波動。
該行認為,中資互聯網股中可關注盈利增長、現金流強勁和股東回報的企業,該行偏好阿里巴巴及騰訊,均予以「買入」評級。該行認為阿里估值吸引、監管放寬及服裝/化妝品方面的需求復甦,且可進行更多回購。騰訊方面,看好其遊戲業務前景改善及視頻賬戶上升空間等。
【沽空率上升 內房股造淡】
港股今日主板市寬變動不大,主板股票的升跌比率為19比21(上日20為比22);恆指成份股今日51隻股份上升,下跌股份23隻,升跌比率為67比30(上日為43比53);大市今日錄沽空255.81億元,佔可沽空股份成交額1,428.13億元的17.912%(上日為16.994%)。
內房股造淡,新城發展(01030.HK)股價挫5.4%,龍湖(00960.HK)股價跌3.7%,萬科(02202.HK)及雅居樂(03383.HK)股價各跌2.8%及3.3%。物管股亦向下,碧桂園服務(06098.HK)股價下滑6.3%,旭輝永升服務(01995.HK)股價挫6.9%。
瑞銀發表報告指,萬科理層透露由於去年合約銷售毛利率略低於20%,預計今年賬面毛利率將受壓,低於去年水平,但新增項目毛利率較高,可為2024年毛利率帶來支持。
此外,海通國際發表報告指,市場憧憬內地或會放鬆對當地房地產行業的三條紅線政策,如果取消三條紅線政策,料民企開發商可以在現有債務再融資方面有更多的靈活性。然而,該行認為民企開發商不會尋求擴大債務規模。在大多數違約的民企開發商中,去槓桿化和債務重組仍然是首要任務。該行指長期來看,國企開發商將進一步提高市場份額。
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