花旗:本港今年全年生產總值料增長3%
花旗集團香港經濟師雷智顏預計,本港今年GDP每季增長分別達1.4%、1.8%、5.8%以及2.8%,全年生產總值累計增長3%、明年則增長3.4%,主要是與內地通關利好本港旅遊業、餐飲業復甦。
她指,由於內地內部需時復甦,春運後復工進度較預期慢,從而影響香港物流情況,加上處於關稅調整期,故擔憂首季本港服務業、旅遊業在短期內能否應對此反彈,而次季仍在整頓當中,但恢復速度會較快。
她預料,通關初期會吸引高端旅客來港,並主導奢侈品消費市場增長,相信直至五一黃金周,大眾旅客(mass tourism)來港消費才會陸續回升;至於後續支撐力度能否延續,要視乎通關順暢進度、本港航班運力恢復程度等因素。
她表示,目前本港處於「疫後時期」,經濟需要由政府主動推動,冀望即將公布的《財政預算案》應重點在於補貼部份受疫情嚴重影響的公司、支援弱勢社群、以及補貼電費,惟整體支出應較過去三年低,並認為再派錢對提振經濟成效不大。
另外,她預料聯儲局將於今年2月加息0.5厘、3月及5月各加0.25厘,最終聯邦利率達5.25至5.5%水平。(ca/u)
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