摩通:美國12月通脹數據或低於預期 料延長熊市反彈勢頭
摩通(JPM.US)表示,周四公布的美國通脹數據可能會低於預期,這將延續熊市反彈勢頭,不過若聯儲局繼續在緊縮周期中保持活躍,市場就應該保持謹慎。
目前市場預計上月通脹將下跌至6.5%,但摩通預計通脹有可能會較預計低10個點子以內,估計標普500指數將在盤中上漲1.5%至2%。若通脹率低於6.4%(機會率20%),股市會有3%至3.5%的升幅。只有當通脹低於4.5%至5%時,市場才會開始反映聯儲局在3月會議上對暫停緊縮周期的預期。
摩通又提到,若通脹高於6.6%,預計將打擊風險資產,債券孳息率將上升。
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