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《大行報告》中金:港股反彈是空頭回補及交易型資金所致 料仍有14至18%修復空間
中金發表報告指,南向資金自去年11月市場反彈以來流入反而放緩,海外主動資金流出雖然放緩,但並未逆轉成流入,說明兩者可能都不是近期恆指反彈的主力。排除掉上述可能後,疊加近期港股賣空成交佔比明顯回落,可能表明空頭回補與一些交易型資金或是主要動力,這與該行近期同市場交流得到的反饋也較為吻合。 該行展望港股市場後續的節奏和空間取決於「三重壓力」的依次緩解,第一步是風險偏好的改善,去年11月以來的反彈基本完成;第二步是今年第一季美國通脹繼續回落和美聯儲加息停止推動美債利率下行、與中國疫後修覆和政策加碼預期帶來的進一步估值修復機會,目前看可見度也相對較高;第三步,也是力度更大的一步,為二季度後企業盈利的修復前景,這將是決定港股反彈可持續性的關鍵因素。 中金指,如果後續政策加碼推動基本面持續向好,取決於地產政策力度和消費修復高度,市場則有望迎來更大級別行情,價值風格有望跑贏,可以類比2017年局面;但如果整體增長只是一個相對溫和的局面,市場指數空間可能就會受限,市場更多轉向自身增長前景好的結構性成長行情,如互聯網和部分消費醫藥板塊,更類似2019年。基準情形下,該行認為目前時點更類似2019年,更新測算港股市場較當前位置仍有14至18%的修覆空間,基於6至10%的盈利增長和5至8%的估值修復。
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